Who’s feeling comfortable in Houston

The Shell Houston Open presents a fun and never-ending exercise for us as gamers and observers. As familiar as we are with how a golfer describes how to score on a golf course, it’s always imperative to take every bit of rhetoric with a grain of salt. Is he referring to the strengths of his game? Maybe his weaknesses? Maybe what he saw in his group, or read about? Maybe he’s trying to fuel confidence by going public with his game plan. And so on. If there’s a face with the narrative, it’s how we’ll occasionally hear about a golfer winning despite losing strokes to the field in putting. It sounds wrong because how we’ve been educated on the merit of the stroked-gained data, but even that new-age approach isn’t airtight. Rory McIlroy clinched the 2016 FedExCup with a victory at the 2016 TOUR Championship where he lost fractions of a stroke to the field in putting. It’s one of any number of ways to prevail on the PGA TOUR, as it should be. Now, he still ranked 13th among what were only 29 who completed the tournament, but when he sits down for his pre-tournament presser this year (assuming he qualifies, of course), don’t be surprised if he emphasizes the value of hitting greens in regulation and knocking it close. He checked in at a respective second and fourth in GIR and proximity to the hole at East Lake en route to victory. The Golf Club of Houston notably has hosted a pair of winners who finished last in their fields in fairways hit. Both Anthony Kim (2010) and J.B. Holmes (2015) ranked last in driving accuracy the weeks the won the tournament, both surviving in a playoff to boot. They are two of the dozens of touring professionals who are comfortable pretty much no matter where they find their ball, so keep an ear out for anyone interviewed this week who says it’s crucial to find fairways this week. Statistically, it isn’t and gamers are not advised to pour any value into it, but if anyone playing for his livelihood is comfortable in proclaiming that that’s what it takes to succeed, understand his perspective. Depending on the golfer, short and straight can work just as well and long and wayward just as well as a balance of both. This is proven by reviewing the formulas of just the last three winners in Houston. Despite how a singular route is taken to the top, we still need to play to values in the aggregate. Although the Golf Club of Houston is a fair test, the ubiquitous wind in Texas is its primary defense, so it can be quite gettable in calm air. It’s a par 72 with four par 5s and no intermediate rough, so it’s bombs away, but piling up scoring opportunities is still the first checkpoint. This is why distance off the tee in any form is omitted from the identifiers below. Undulating greens that could run as fast as 13 feet on the Stimpmeter step up as a close second in terms of defense, thus underscoring confidence upon arrival with the putter. The combination of distance control and accuracy on approach with paying off those shots is the ticket. And before you argue that it’s the ticket every week, the Golf Club of Houston supports it with data that rules out splitting fairways and hitting it super long. Golfers in this week’s field inside the top 10 in the following categories in last year’s Shell Houston Open: * – Currently inside the top 50 on the PGA TOUR in the stat. (Golfers who haven’t logged enough rounds are not tagged.) Greens in Regulation Rank  Golfer (Tournament Finish) 1  *Rickie Fowler (T10) T2  *Rafa Cabrera Bello (4th) T2  *Charles Howell III (T7) 6  Henrik Stenson (2nd) T7  *Lucas Glover (T57) T7  Si Woo Kim (T13) T7  Ben Martin (T52) T10  Zac Blair (T38) T10  *Russell Henley (T5) T10  *Jim Herman (Win) T10  Geoff Ogilvy (T46) T10  Chez Reavie (T7) Strokes Gained: Putting Rank  Golfer (Tournament Finish) 2  *Russell Henley (T5) 3  Kyle Reifers (T7) 4  Jim Herman (Win) 5  Johnson Wagner (T13) 6  *Phil Mickelson (T13) 7  *Daniel Berger (T5) 8  Chez Reavie (T7) 9  Si Woo Kim (T13) Putting: Birdie-or-Better Percentage Rank  Golfer (Tournament Finish) 1  Andrew Loupe (T46) 3  *Daniel Berger (T5) 4  *Phil Mickelson (T13) 5  *Jordan Spieth (T13) 6  Kyle Reifers (T7) 7  Henrik Stenson (2nd) 9  Jim Herman (Win) 10  Kyle Stanley (T19) The Golf Club of Houston has hosted the Shell Houston Open since 2006, so the data below reflects on the tournament history since. It’s rare that I slot a golfer with only one top 10 in Horses for Courses, but Charley Hoffman’s overall record is too good to hide in Other Signs of Comfort. He’s a worthy complement in any fantasy lineup this week. NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply endorsement in any fantasy game. Horses for the Courses Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. Getting Comfy Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. Other Signs of Comfort Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

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