How the field qualified for the World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational as of 7/19/2019: Member of last named U.S. Ryder Cup team Bryson DeChambeau Tony Finau Dustin Johnson Brooks Koepka Phil Mickelson Patrick Reed Webb Simpson Jordan Spieth Justin Thomas Bubba Watson Member of last named European Ryder Cup team Paul Casey Tommy Fleetwood Sergio Garcia Tyrrell Hatton Rory McIlroy Alex Noren Thorbjorn Olesen Ian Poutler Jon Rahm Justin Rose Henrik Stenson Top 50 players – World Golf Ranking (through 7/23) Patrick Cantlay Xander Schauffele Gary Woodland Matt Kuchar Adam Scott Jason Day27 Louis Oosthuizen Matt Wallace Marc Leishman Chez Reavie Kevin Kisner Hideki Matsuyama Matthew Fitzpatrick Keegan Bradley Kevin Na Shane Lowry Rafa Cabrera Bello Eddie Pepperell Billy Horschel Cameron Smith Brandt Snedeker Haotong Li Andrew Putnam Jim Furyk Cheng Tsung Pan Justin Harding Tournament Winners – 115+ points WGR strength of field Lucas Bjerregaard Corey Conners J.B. Holmes Max Homa Kodai Ichihara Sung Kang Nate Lashley Adam Long Keith Mitchell Aaron Rai Kevin Tway Danny Willett Matthew Wolff Winner – Japan Golf Tour Mikumu Horikawa Shugo Imahira Winner – South Africa Tour Philip Eriksson Winner – Asian Tour Poom Saksansin

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2019 The Open Championship, End of Round 2. Top 15 win probabilities: Shane Lowry (T1, -8, 13.3%) Tommy Fleetwood (T3, -7, 12%) Justin Rose (T5, -6, 11%) Lee Westwood (T3, -7, 6.6%) J.B. Holmes (T1, -8, 6.4%) Brooks Koepka (T8, -5, 6.3%) Jon Rahm (T12, -4, 4.7%) Dustin Johnson (T18, -3, 3.6%) Matt Kuchar (T12, -4, 3.1%) Justin Harding (T5, -6, 3%) Cameron Smith (T5, -6, 3%) Andrew Putnam (T8, -5, 2.4%) Jordan Spieth (T8, -5, 2.4%) Dylan Frittelli (T8, -5, 2.2%) Xander Schauffele (T18, -3, 2.2%) NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The Open Championship, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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PORTRUSH, Northern Ireland – For years, Rory McIlroy has dreamt of walking down Royal Portrush’s 18th hole to a standing ovation. He received one, but two days earlier than he hoped. The fans cheered McIlroy for fighting to make the cut at a tournament that he won five years earlier. McIlroy’s Open Championship dreams were dashed from the start after his first tee shot went out-of-bounds. The fans still showed up Friday to support the local boy, even after his 79. “I didn’t know how people were going to react yesterday, how many people were going to be on the first tee,â€� McIlroy said. “To have that many people out there following me, supporting me, cheering my name, it meant the world to me. I’m glad, to some degree, I gave them something to cheer about today.â€� It looked like McIlroy would need another course record Friday just to make the cut. He shot 61 at Royal Portrush when he was 16, but the track has been toughened since then. Related: Leaderboard | Englishmen in contention | Spieth, Koepka bringing their best to another major | Tiger cards 1-under 70 His second-round 65 at The Open tied the low score of the tournament and riveted the fans at Royal Portrush who stuck around on a cold and cloudy afternoon. It was around 8 p.m. when McIlroy signed his scorecard. The support from his countrymen clearly had an impact on McIlroy, who struggled for words during his post-round interviews. “As much as I came here at the start of the week saying I wanted to do it for me, you know, by the end of the round there today I was doing it just as much for them as I was for me,â€� McIlroy said. “I wanted to be here for the weekend. Selfishly I wanted to feel that support for two more days. “To play in front of those crowds today and to feel that momentum and really dig in, it’s going to be a tough one to get over.â€� The weekend still seemed far away after McIlroy made two birdies on Friday’s front nine. He produced a riveting display on the back nine, though. He birdied Nos. 10-12 before making bogey on the par-3 13th after hitting into a bunker. He bounced back with another birdie on the 14th hole before saving par from another bunker on the 15th. Royal Portrush’s 16th hole is named Calamity Corner for good reason. The 230-yard hole has a steep drop-off right of the green. McIlroy lasered a long-iron to 10 feet and made the putt on the course’s third-hardest hole. He needed one more birdie on the last two holes to keep his hopes alive. He drove into the rough on 17, but played a deft wedge shot that landed just over a bunker and rolled to 12 feet. He just missed the birdie putt. On the last hole, his aggressive approach was a hair too far to the left, rolling down a hill. His fate was sealed when his chip failed to fall. “The last week has been a real eye-opener for me,â€� McIlroy said. “Sometimes you’re so far away and you forget about all the people that are cheering you on back home. And then you come and play in front of them. It definitely hit me like a ton of bricks today.â€� He wasn’t the only big name to miss the cut by a shot. Brandt Snedeker, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Andrew ‘Beef’ Johnston and Brian Harman, who got in the field as an alternate, all finished at 2 over. Day bogeyed five of his last six holes to shoot 74 and miss the cut by a stroke. It was his first missed cut in nine starts in this championship. This Open was always going to be historic. It was the tournament’s first visit to Royal Portrush in nearly 70 years. But a more ignominious piece of history was made Friday: Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson missed the cut in the same major for the first time. Woods shot 78-70, the second-highest 36-hole score of his career in this event. After winning the Masters, he played the final three majors of the year in 9 over par. It was the first time since 2015 that he missed multiple cuts in majors. “You can’t compare the two,â€� Woods said. “Those were some of the lowest times of my life. This is not. This is just me not playing well and not scoring well, and adds up to high scores.â€� Woods and Mickelson have both missed the cut in just three other PGA TOUR events: the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open, 2012 A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier and 1993 AT&T Byron Nelson. Mickelson played alongside 36-hole co-leader Shane Lowry. Lowry beat him by 16 shots over 36 holes. Mickelson’s last top-10 in a major came in his famous duel with Henrik Stenson in the 2016 Open at Royal Troon. Mickelson’s best finish in a major since then is T18. U.S. Open champion Gary Woodland, who played alongside McIlroy, also missed the cut after shooting 74-71. This was Woodland’s first missed cut in eight Open starts. Zach Johnson, the 2015 Open champion, missed the cut for the first time since 2006, ending a streak of 12 consecutive cuts made in this event. He’d finished in the top 25 in seven of the past eight Opens. McIlroy wasn’t the only player from Northern Ireland with a heartbreaking finish. Darren Clarke, the 2011 Open champion, triple-bogeyed the last hole to finish at 3 over par, missing the cut by two shots. Clarke is a member at Royal Portrush and hit the first tee shot of the tournament. He quickly rushed off the green after his difficult finish. Bryson DeChambeau finished at 5-over 147. Since the start of 2017, his best finish in a major is T25. Marc Leishman shot 8-over 150. He’d made five consecutive cuts in The Open, including three top-6 finishes. McIlroy wasn’t the only former Open champion with an impressive finish. David Duval never threatened to make the cut, but his determination to play to the end was admirable. He shot 20-over 91 in the first round, including a 14 on the par-5 seventh hole. He was 8 over par on his first nine holes Friday, as well. He still played hard, shooting 1 under on his back nine.

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PORTRUSH, Northern Ireland – As the story goes, Shane Lowry and his close friend Padraig Harrington were sitting together on the same flight to California a couple of years ago when the plane encountered turbulence. After a nearby passenger started to become nervous, Harrington tried to calm her down. “Turbulence has never ever taken a plane down,â€� Harrington reassured her. To which Lowry quipped: “There’s a first time for everything.â€� Related: Leaderboard | Englishmen in contention at Royal Portrush | Spieth, Koepka bringing their best to another major The Irishmen shared a laugh as they told the story during a joint interview with the Independent newspaper a day later. It was good they could smile – especially for Lowry, given that the previous summer he had frittered away a chance to win his first major by shooting a final-round 76 at the U.S. Open in Oakmont. Lowry had entered the final round with a four-shot lead but bogeyed four of his first 10 holes, eventually giving way to Dustin Johnson. It was a harsh lesson – but perhaps a necessary one that will pay dividends this week at The Open Championship at Royal Portrush. Lowry will enter Saturday’s third round in the final twosome with American J.B. Holmes, the two sharing the 36-hole lead at 8 under. It’s Irish Whiskey vs. Kentucky Bourbon, although a large pack of contenders – including, of course, Brooks Koepka – are eager to chase. Every golfer at this level has varying amounts of scar tissue, tournaments that once seemed in their grasp only to slip away. Holmes once led the 2008 PGA Championship after 36 holes but ended up shooting a final-round 81 in a tournament won, coincidentally, by Harrington. But Lowry has the fresher scar tissue, and perhaps the most pressure, given that he’s an Irishman leading the first Open to be played in Northern Ireland in 68 years. If he can pull this off … well, no Irish writer – and there have been plenty of great ones – could produce this kind of story. “Look, I’m obviously going to be thinking about it tonight,â€� Lowry said. “There’s no point in shying away from it.â€� Yes, but will he be thinking about Oakmont? Harrington thinks it could help. Very few players win these things without going through that a couple of times,â€� said the three-time major winner, who definitely has suffered his share of near-misses. “I would definitely think he’s a better player because of Oakmont rather than scarred. “He’s won big tournaments. It’s not all gone one way or the other. He’s had some tough ones on the golf course and he’s had some good ones. That’s the most important thing. … Oakmont has definitely got to be a help to him, not a hindrance.â€� Holmes hasn’t really felt the weekend pressure at a major in the last decade. His two top-10 finishes came in the same 2016 season, and they were both of the backdoor variety – a tie for fourth at the Masters when he started the final round tied for 13th, and a third at the Open Championship when he entered Sunday eight shots off Henrik Stenson’s lead. But he has suffered through a poor stretch since winning the Genesis Open in February. After his second-round 68 on Friday, he acknowledged it was more than just a slump. “Four weeks ago, I thought my career was over. Or felt like it,â€� Holmes said. He’s obviously pulled himself together at Portrush. No one on the first page of the leaderboard has more career scar tissue than 46-year-old Englishman Lee Westwood, still seeking his first victory in his 82nd career major start. He has three seconds among his 18 top-10s; if he wins on Sunday, he’d be the oldest major winner since Julius Boros won the 1968 PGA at age 48. Westwood’s not thinking about that right now. “There’s too much ground to cover before Sunday night,â€� he said. “… If it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen. And if it doesn’t, it doesn’t. Just go home and have dinner, go on holiday the next week. Do the same things. Life won’t change.â€� Lowry said life won’t change for him, either, if he wins. He just wants to go out and do his best. A year ago, he was in bad spot. He missed the Open cut for the fourth straight year. He split with his long-time caddie. He was depressed about his game. “I wasn’t in a great place mentally,â€� he said. Now, he’s 36 holes away from being a national hero. An entire island will be rooting for him this weekend. Maybe he turns that near-miss at Oakmont into a positive. Portrush native Graeme McDowell, making the cut on the number, will try to chase down Lowry. He expects it to be difficult. “Shane Lowry is probably one of the most competitive people I’ve ever met in the life,â€� McDowell said. Added Harrington: “He’s got a great attitude and a winning mentality … I think Shane does believe he can do it.â€� Sure, Lowry’s never won a major. But there’s a first time for everything.

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