2019 Desert Classic, End of Round 1: Course scoring averages: LaQuinta CC (LQ): -2.58 strokes per round Nicklaus Tournament Course (NT): -2.29 Stadium Course (SC): -1.12 Current cutline: 69 players at -3 or better (T53rd position) Top 3 most likely projected cutlines (3 round cut): 7 under par: 17.4% 8 under par: 16.1% 6 under par: 16.0% Top 5 win probabilities: Phil Mickelson (1, -12, LQ) : 19.7% Jon Rahm (T8, -6, LQ) : 11.0% Adam Hadwin (T4, -7, SC) : 7.5% Justin Rose (T31, -4, LQ) : 7.4% Patrick Cantlay (T18, -5, NT) : 6.3% NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Desert Classic, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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LA QUINTA, Calif. – Adam Hadwin used superb ball-striking to shoot the lowest score on the treacherous Stadium Course and continue his strong play in the Desert Classic. Hadwin hit all 18 greens in regulation Thursday en route to a 7-under 65. He made five birdies and holed a 60-yard pitch for eagle on the par-5 16th. Hadwin called it “probably my longest hole-out in like three years.â€� His only bogey was a three-putt from 48 feet on the par-3 sixth hole. He played his final six holes in 5 under par. The Stadium Course is traditionally the toughest of the three courses in use this week, and that was true again Thursday. It played to a 70.9 scoring average, while the field averaged 69.4 strokes at La Quinta Country Club and 69.7 at PGA West’s Nicklaus Tournament Course. “I basically have to shoot probably another three 7-unders to even have a chance,â€� Hadwin said. MUST READS: Round 1, Desert Classic He’s had no trouble going low at this event, finishing no worse than sixth in the past three Desert Classics. He’s 66 under par in his last 13 rounds at this event, including a 59 at La Quinta Country Club in 2017. Phil Mickelson flirted with Hadwin’s mark on Thursday, but came up one shot short. “I’m five back after shooting 7 under,â€� Hadwin said. “I was actually watching the leaderboard, thinking he’s going to try and pass my course record over there. That would be a Phil Mickelson thing to do.â€� Hadwin is 51st in the FedExCup standings thanks to two top-10s in five starts this season. He’s also seeking a spot in his second consecutive Presidents Cup. This year’s Presidents Cup will be played Dec. 12-15 at Australia’s Royal Melbourne Golf Club.

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LA QUINTA, Calif. – Jon Rahm, the Desert Classic’s defending champion, overcame the flu and some uncharacteristic weather conditions to shoot 66 at La Quinta Countrty Club on Thursday. Those were two reasons he struggled with distance control on Thursday. The weather in the California desert is often so pristine that people refer to it as “dome golf.â€� Thursday started with a one-hour fog delay. Then players had to deal with rain during their round. “(I’m) still pretty weak, which is possibly why I wasn’t hitting it quite as far,â€� Rahm said. “(I’m) not fully recuperated, my body is not a hundred percent, so I could definitely feel when I hit a driver and I thought I hit it far enough it was definitely a 10 yard gap. Even today a couple of the shorter irons I could feel my body not being able to swing as hard. But I don’t have bad feelings in me, I just need to rest up a little and hopefully I get better every day.â€� Rahm made his only bogey of the day after his approach shot to the second hole came up short and he missed a 5-foot par putt. He made seven birdies over his next 16 holes. He is six shots behind Phil Mickelson, who shot 60 at La Quinta. Rahm missed just three greens despite saying that he struggled with his distance control. “The air density, it’s pretty heavy right now. So sometimes it’s hard to believe, especially when you get closer to the hole, how hard you had to hit the ball,â€� Rahm said. “And when you are hitting one or two clubs more than what we’re used to, it’s hard to be absolutely certain of doing it. But again, that only happened a few holes. For the most part I had a pretty good day, a pretty good ball striking day.â€� He is 69th in the FedExCup standings after starting his season with a T22 at the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions and eighth-place finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He also won the Hero World Challenge in December.

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LA QUINTA, Calif. – Justin Rose did what Phil Mickelson’s couldn’t: birdie the final three holes at La Quinta Countrty Club. Rose, the reigning FedExCup champion, birdied Nos. 16-18 to shoot 68 on Thursday. Mickelson needed to birdie all three of those holes to break 60. He came close, making birdies on 16 and 18 to shoot a 12-under 60 and take the Desert Classic’s first-round lead. Both Rose and Mickelson were playing their first round of the calendar year. For Rose, the Desert Classic is his first tournament since signing an equipment deal with Honma. “With the new bag of clubs, I felt really good with them,â€� Rose said. “I drove the ball fantastically well today and hit a lot of shots pin-high with my irons.â€� Rose also has a temporary caddie, Gareth Lord, this week because his longtime looper, Mark Fulcher, had heart surgery Thursday. Rose is making his first start at the Desert Classic since 2010. La Quinta Country Club is the only one of the three courses in use this week that also was being used back when Rose last played here. He is 22 under par in five rounds at La Quinta. He made six birdies and two bogeys Thursday after hitting 9 of 14 fairways and 13 greens. “I felt like I could have been 4- or 5- or 6-under par through the first seven holes. I left a few out there early in my round and (made) a couple silly mistakes here and there, didn’t capitalize on some short birdie putts,â€� Rose said. “ Birdieing my last three to get it to 4 under kind of made me feel good about kind of getting something out of the round.â€� This is Rose’s second start of the season. He finished third in the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions in October, his seventh top-three finish in his last 19 TOUR starts. He is 40th in this season’s FedExCup standings as he tries to become the first player to successfully defend the Cup.

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