Lexi Thompson, who is still winless this season, is looking to become the 26th different winner on the LPGA Tour this season as she leads the 2018 finale by three strokes.

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ST. SIMONS ISLAND, Ga. – The TOUR’s hot-shot rookie and one of its longest-tenured players will play in the final group at The RSM Classic on Saturday. They’ll be joined by one other man. Jason Gore, insurance salesman. Back problems and bad golf led the former TOUR winner to look for another job. It also helped him regain his love for the game. Kirkland-Gore Insurance was founded about 18 months ago. Entertaining clients is his main responsibility, but he did earn his insurance license last week. “I was playing well at home, but who knows when you get out here and play in this kind of weather, especially with this competition,â€� Gore said. He is competing on a sponsor exemption this week.  In the past 25 years, only eight players have won a PGA TOUR event while playing on a sponsor exemption. Gore is one of them. He will play in Saturday’s final group alongside Cameron Champ, the early front-runner for this season’s Rookie of the Year award, and Charles Howell III, the 39-year-old veteran of more than 500 TOUR events. Howell has a three-shot lead over Champ and Gore after back-to-back 64s. Howell is looking for his first win in more than a decade and just the third in nearly two decades as a pro. Champ is looking for his second win in five starts. Gore and Champ both shot 63 on Friday to move into second place. Champ is in position to take the FedExCup lead. At least for a day, Gore was reminded of better days. He’s still known best for his magical run in 2005, when he was the endearing underdog who played in the U.S. Open’s final group. He won four of his next eight starts, including his lone PGA TOUR title, and shot a 59. He’s won just once on the Web.com Tour since. This week, he’s back in the final group after getting one of the last spots in the field. He learned Sunday night that he’d been given a tee time at Sea Island. His car was packed for an unofficial event at Pebble Beach. He was on a red-eye flight to the East Coast hours later. “I’m just glad my boss would let me off to play,â€� he said. He only has the partial PGA TOUR status that is afforded to past champions, though. He’s played just 12 events over the past two years. He’s made one cut. “I haven’t played a weekend in so long, I don’t know what to do,â€� Gore said. “I have nothing to lose.â€� On Friday, he didn’t look like a man with a day job, albeit one that affords a lot of time on the golf course. He birdied his final four holes to shoot 30 on the back nine of Sea Island’s Seaside Course. He leads the field in Strokes Gained: Putting after gaining more than 5 shots on the greens Friday. He made all seven of his attempts between 5 and 15 feet, including three putts of 10-15 feet. He also made a 27-foot birdie putt on 17. Gore’s year got off to a promising start. Now he’s looking for a strong finish. He finished second in his third tournament of 2018, the Web.com Tour’s Club Colombia Championship. He hasn’t made a cut in his last eight starts, though. “My back felt terrible,â€� said Gore, who has arthritis in his spine. He had radio-frequency ablation six weeks ago to “burn all the nerves in there.â€� “Being out here, it kind of beats you up after all these years,â€� he said. Stepping away was just what he needed to get back on the leaderboard.

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Through 36 holes at The RSM Classic, Charles Howell III leads by 3 strokes at 14 under par. His closest pursuers are Cameron Champ and Jason Gore, both of whom are sitting on 11 under. Here are the top 10 win probabilities according to our live model: We have Champ and Howell III estimated to be of nearly identical ability levels; therefore the 30 percentage point advantage for Howell III is entirely due to his current 3 stroke advantage. A little further back is Webb Simpson at 6 under par. Simpson is by a wide margin the class of this field according to our model and could be a player to watch for over the weekend. Howell III has been a model of consistency throughout his career. Shown below is his performance data for every tournament since the 2014 season. The y-axis here is in units of adjusted (for field strength) strokes-gained. Remarkably, despite having a 10 event moving average (the black line) that fluctuates between 0 and +1 for most of this time span, Howell III had just 1 event in which he averaged more than +3 strokes-gained. This is statistically very unlikely, and indicates that Howell III is a low-variance player (i.e. has fewer great rounds but also fewer poor rounds than the typical player of his ability level). To win on the PGA TOUR, anywhere from a +2.5 to +6 true strokes-gained performance can be required to get it done (depending on field strength and how widely dispersed scores are in a given week). To win this weekend for the first time since 2007, Howell will almost certainly need to average above that +3 strokes-gained barrier for the week. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of The RSM Classic, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.

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