Thursday Night Stat Report It was a difficult day for scoring in the opening round at the Valero Texas Open, with only 4 holes playing under par on the day. Here is a graphic detailing hole-by-hole scoring from Thursday’s round: Currently, there are 86 players at 1 over par or better (T64th position). Our model is projecting Friday’s cutline as follows (as usual, assuming that the course plays to a scoring average similar to Thursday’s): 2 over par: 74.2 percent 3 over par: 24.8 percent 1 over par: 1.0 percent This week’s field at the Valero Texas Open is as big as they come on the PGA TOUR (156 players) and, due to a relative lack of starpower, one of the more evenly-matched fields as well. As a consequence, our model’s highest cut projection at the start of the tournament was just 74 percent, belonging to Matt Kuchar (in a typical week, the highest cut projection will usually be 80 to 90 percent). After shooting 1 under par today, Kuchar’s cut probability now sits at 91 percent. One of the biggest movers on the day was Grayson Murray, whose probability of making the cut rose from 54 percent at the start of Thursday to 99 percent, thanks to his 5 under par round of 67. This implies that the model is giving Murray about a 1 percent chance of shooting 7 over par or worse tomorrow, given how the cutline is being projected above (nobody tell Grayson!). Some other notable cut probabilities heading into Friday’s round are Kevin Chappell (Even par; 80 percent), Brendan Steele (2 under par; 95 percent), Adam Scott (3 over par; 43 percent), and Sergio Garcia (2 over par; 59 percent). NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut�, “Top 20�, “Top 5�, and “Win� probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the Valero Texas Open, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.  

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Emergency 9 Here are nine tidbits from the first round of the Valero Texas Open that gamers can use tomorrow, this weekend or down the road. The AT&T Oaks Course in San Antonio has been the host since 2010 and plays 7,435 yards to a Par-72. Know Thy Enemy These were the top-10 picked golfers in the PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO. The consensus is that the late-early draw should have a slight advantage. If that’s the case, the pros in BOLD above will deal with better conditions. The breeze started early on Thursday and by lunch time the scoring average was approaching almost two shots over par. Only Brendan Steele from the earlier starters was in red figures as he posted 70. Chappell and List signed for even-par 72. The scoring average for the day finished 73.532. No Gray Area Grayson Murray posted the lowest round of the day in the morning wave with 67. He circled seven birdies and the only blemish on his card was a double on No. 7. Murray announced himself to gamers last summer when he won the Barbasol Championship and was only four shots out of the lead at the PGA Championship after three rounds. Before MC last week on Hilton Head (74-70) he chalked up T14 at Bay Hill and T14 at the Golf Club of Houston in his previous two starts. He led the field in SG: Tee to Green and T16 in putts per GIR. Not bad for his first trip! People’s Choice: Luke List One of three noted above who might not be on the better side of the draw, List didn’t lose the tournament in the first round. His even-par round opened with 35 on the back and 37 on the front to close. He hit 10 of 14 fairways but only nine GIR. He’s only five back as he looks to keep his streak of T26 or better in stroke play rolling to nine consecutive events. Defending Champ Kevin Chappell also ground out an even-par round in the morning wave after making a double on his second hole (No. 11). He made four birdies against only two bogeys the rest of the way. Chappell WD at WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play with a back issue. He’s played the last two weeks and MC in both. Defending for the first time is never easy and neither is this track. His streak of red figure rounds ends at eight. He’ll remain on my bench tomorrow as I’ll load up with early wave guys. Atkins Diet Big shout out to the three of you who played Matt Atkins in the PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO this week! In 10 events this year the rookie collected checks twice (T65 and T22). He won the El Bosque Mexico Championship last year on the Web.com to help him gain status on TOUR for this season. On a course he’s never played he scratched out five birdies against one bogey and will hit the pillow with a smile on his face. Familiar Faces The landlord at the AT&T Oaks Course is Charley Hoffman. His round of 72 keeps his career record at 41-under-par in nine events. It’s weird to point out that this was his fifth round in a row in the 70’s and fourth in a row of par or worse. … Billy Horschel and Ryan Moore both signed afternoon rounds of bogey-free 68. These were the only two clean cards on the day and they both share T2. Both of them were also in the mix last week at Harbour Town as Horschel was T5 and Moore T16. Native Son Boerne resident and 2015 champ Jimmy Walker burst out of the gate and was tied for the lead on three-under thru his first eight holes on the back nine. Then he found a cactus which led to an unplayable. His drop rolled against a rock. The recovery shot found the creek. His 17-footer saved double. He played the front in even par with one birdie and one bogey and signed for 71 on the day. I see one bad hole. It’s Been a Long Time Sergio Garcia (74) was the player consultant on the AT&T Oaks Course design with Greg Norman. He played the inaugural year in 2010 before returning this season. He struggled in just about every facet of his game and 48 percent of you have to decide to roll him out in Round 2 or sit him. The good news he’ll be on the better part of the draw. The bad news is he’ll need to fix everything on the range. I’m passing. Study Hall Chris Stroud WD after posting 79. He’ll need to be replaced if he’s in your PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO lineup. No reason was given at the time of the WD. … Camilo Villegas was a late WD for the second event in a row as he deals with a shoulder issue. … The Valero Texas Open will move to the week before the Masters starting next year. … Monday Qualifying medalist Joshua Creel shot 69 and is T7. He hasn’t had a start on ANY TOUR since August of last year.

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