Fantasy Insider: Farmers Insurance Open

If you were curious how valuable it is to own the winner of a tournament for which Driving, Approach and Short aren’t measured in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO, the CareerBuilder Challenge was a prime example. Only 3.3 percent of gamers were in possession of champion Hudson Swafford. The 250 bonus points applied accounted for over 73 percent of his weekly total. Adam Hadwin’s bonus of 150 points was worth nearly 62 percent of his output. (Only 1.7 percent of you rostered the Canadian.) Needless to say, that duo also finished a respective 1-2 in fantasy scoring. I don’t normally recap the overall winner of any tournament, but how about a golf clap for crayk91, who had Swafford, Hadwin, Brendan Steele (T6) and Charles Howell III (T12) in the finale! Steele slotted seventh in fantasy scoring with 139 points, while CH3 tied for 14th with 113. Those are equivalent to a great round in an event when Driving, Approach and Short are included, but in the long-term, having a bad week when ShotLink is off in the fantasy game is better than when it’s on. You simply give up less ground. This is why it’s all about the result and not the shots. This week’s Farmers Insurance Open demands the same approach. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf My roster for the Farmers Insurance Open (in alphabetical order): Jason Day Brooks Koepka Martin Laird Hideki Matsuyama Jimmy Walker Gary Woodland You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Dustin Johnson; Michael Kim; Martin Laird; Luke List; Shane Lowry; Phil Mickelson; Francesco Molinari; Jon Rahm; Jimmy Walker; Gary Woodland Driving: n/a Approach: n/a Short: n/a Power Ranking Wild Card J.B. Holmes … The last cut from the Power Rankings for whom you could argue that he now belongs since Patrick Reed (No. 14) withdrew today. However, the support for Holmes would almost entirely rest on his last two trips to Torrey Pines when he lost in a playoff in 2015 and finished T6 last year. His first nine appearances were underwhelming on the whole and he’s been rather quiet for months upon arrival. It’s a classic faceoff between bewaring the sure thing and this is exactly what he needs to snap out of the funk. With the depth at your disposal, you might be keen to let your opposition take the plunge. Draws Phil Mickelson … If there’s such a thing as a contrarian Hall of Famer, here he is. Like so many others, he loves Torrey Pines where he’s captured three titles among top 10s. However, it’s had the better of him in recent years, and we can’t ignore it. Just one cut made (T51, 2013) in the last five editions. More recently, he eliminated doubt regarding his health with a relatively strong return to action last week (T21), so I like the combination of the rest and recovery with the confidence he gained prior to his 28th appearance in La Jolla. It’s just that all gamers will likely feel like they’re forcing him into whatever format you play. Rickie Fowler … All right, it’s a year later, so I’m willing to assume that he learned something at this time last year when he was gassed the week after prevailing in Abu Dhabi. He settled for a T36 in his title defense last week. It ended a burst of form that punctuated 2016. He opened his slate at Torrey Pines with four consecutive top 20s (2010-2013), but has fizzled in three tries since. As I try my level best to dismiss my bias toward the guy, both in fantasy and reality, my endorsement hinges on the belief that he’s back to prove that last year’s missed cut was a fluke. After all, it was his only finish outside the top eight in his first six starts of the year. Brendan Steele … Continues to fly under too many radars as he scales the Official World Golf Ranking on which he’s a career-best 56th. The Southern California native opened the season with victory at the Safeway Open, and then found the groove again with T6s in his first two starts of 2017. Can’t accentuate his balance enough. His record at Torrey Pines is solid as he’s missed only one cut in six trips and a personal-best T17 in his debut in 2011, but he’s projecting to top that this week. Luke List … He’s one of those guys who you just keep throwing out there with the hope that the breakthrough is imminent. The consolation is that his B-game hasn’t been too shabby, either. The best part is that he’s adapted to tighter tracks where his length is mitigated. So, as he looks over his fit at Torrey Pines, it’s just a matter of applying what he’s proven he can do with the bonus that his power can be a difference-maker. Automatic for DFS. Tony Finau … At the pace he’s on, DFSers are having trouble remembering a time when they didn’t adore the guy. He’s also 2-for-2 at Torrey Pines with a T24 and T18 in the last two editions, respectively. Just plug him in again already. You didn’t need my approval. K.J. Choi … A horse for the course with a 6-for-6 record here since 2010. It includes a pair of runner-up finishes among four top 15s. Might be the only time all season when DFSers select him. Pat Perez … You know he’s charged up about his 16th consecutive appearance at Torrey Pines. And he’s still riding the high on the house money of his victory in México in November. Just a superb complement in DFS. Jhonattan Vegas … Keep riding this horse. Fulfilled our mild expectations with a T34 at the CareerBuilder, so he passed the test. Now gets to tackle Torrey Pines where he’s fared well despite a lull in the long-term. Tied for third in his debut in 2011 and finished inside the top 20 in the last two. Jamie Lovemark … Ideal rebound candidate despite last week’s surprising (and disappointing) missed cut. He’s a local native and veteran of this tournament, so there’s a level of comfort connected to his fit for Torrey South. He’s missed only one cut in six trips but hasn’t yet cracked a top 25. That is projected to change right now. Aaron Baddeley … Surprisingly efficient at Torrey Pines with a pair of top 10s among five top 25s in 13 trips. He tied for eighth last year and contradicted what we expect from the Aussie. Consider that he ranked 17th in distance of all drives and led the field in strokes gained: off-the-tee. (Only his 54 holes on Torrey South were measured.) That is simply not his formula most of the time, so without prior success, we’d ignore it due to the conditions. He’s a sneaky play in DFS. Emiliano Grillo … Giving him the benefit of the doubt after the early exit at the CareerBuilder. He’s still finding spots that are best for him, although that really doesn’t narrow down the possibilities. However, he’s back at Torrey Pines where he missed the cut in his debut last year. That says something about his zeal to reverse the result. Louis Oosthuizen … The 34-year-old is making his debut at Torrey Pines (and first appearance on the West Coast Swing since the 2014 Genesis Open), but he’ll fit like a glove from tee to green. There’s the obvious matter of the learning curve on the greens, but he’s a grinder. Jon Rahm … Don’t let a silly T34 in the desert scare you away. If anything, it’s a reminder of our high expectations. He ranked T15 in greens hit and T22 in putts for GIR at the CareerBuilder, so the Spaniard now hauls those finer skills to Torrey Pines where his length is of greater value than it was last week. Fades Tiger Woods … Not unlike how the youth among PGA TOUR members are salivating over the opportunity to put their games to the test on the same playing field at the same time, there are gamers who’ve never invested in him and really, really, really want to. The hopeful will be quick to point out that he led the 17-man field of last month’s Hero World Challenge in birdies, at the same time overlooking that he also led the field in double bogeys (in addition to eight bogeys) and finished third from last in the casual competition. (Albany has five par 5s, by the way.) Given how the 41-year-old wants to compete early and often this year, we’ll have our pick of when to hop aboard, so we might as well allow him a start for him to show us what he can do. This includes course history buffs who see only three finishes (of 15) outside the top 10 at Torrey Pines, never mind that all were in his last four starts. We’ll trust his ability to swing the driver without pain, but we also must wonder how far he is away from another setback. This week’s cool conditions will add to that worry. Justin Rose … This is relative to his prospective value in almost every format where you can’t hide him on a bench. Cachet aside, he’s done just OK at Torrey Pines. The Brit is 4-for-7 with a pair of top 25s, but with no better than a T22 in 2010. Yet, his actual scoring average in 22 totals rounds covering both courses is an impressive 71.18 thanks to only six over-par scores, the worst of which is 74. He’s feeling good, not that the cool air won’t try to slow his back down this week, but there are going to be so many other chances to line him up at sites where he’s had success and the weather cooperates. Remain patient. Adam Hadwin … Delivered on the promise of success as a Sleeper en route to a runner-up performance at the CareerBuilder. If we’re being cynical, there’s something to be said about the fact that he didn’t break 69 in three of his rounds that flanked the third-round 59 at La Quinta, but the overall effort extended the form that warranted the attention in the first place. As it concerns Torrey Pines, he’s overmatched in the context of what matters to us. Stick with putting contests and smaller ballparks. Paul Casey … He doesn’t slump but no one avoids the doldrums forever. Despite our best intentions, we go in with what we know and hope for the best, but with a MC-T58 start to 2017 and a pair of missed cuts at Torrey Pines the last two years, he’s overvalued in every format. Kevin Chappell … First start of 2017 and first as a father of two. His daughter was born on Jan. 19. Gamers will remember the uptick in form that followed the birth of his first child (a boy) in 2015. He sustained it and has elevated since. No doubt that life on the road again will present the benefit of a full night’s rest in consecutive days, but Torrey Pines is a tall task at which to expect all gears to be in sync right out of the gate. What’s more, he’s just 2-for-5 with no top 45s here. Nick Watney … The 2009 champ has added four top 10s at Torrey Pines since hoisting the trophy, but he’s still finding his way following a long layoff due to a herniated disc in 2016. Just 1-for-3 this season with a T35 at Silverado. Charley Hoffman … Continues to scuffle. Likely wasn’t on many short lists this week, anyway, but he can be quite valuable at times, so it’s worth monitoring his pulse. Trying to forget that he turned 40 at the end of December, but he’s not making it easy. Beau Hossler … Making his debut as a professional on the PGA TOUR. There’s so much about which to get excited about his future and I wouldn’t talk you out of a flier just for fun right now, but the logical approach is to observe only. Yes, he knows Torrey Pines well (as the 2011 Junior World champ) and has overcome the shoulder injury that forced him out of the 2016 NCAA Championship final, but this is a whole different animal this week. Gamers who aren’t as familiar with him will soon come to love his edge and swagger. Returning to Competition Jeff Overton … Competing in The Bahamas Great Abaco Classic on the Web.com Tour this week. Out for six months with a sore wrist, the 33-year-old was given one start on a medical extension on the PGA TOUR, which is why he has our attention. He’s only 29.978 FedExCup points shy of qualifying for conditional status, but he’s also a Veteran Member, so we’ll see him on occasion later in the season even if he falls short of that secondary objective. When healthy, he’s a mild contributor, so keep an eye on him. Shane Bertsch … Also in The Bahamas but missed the cut. It’s his first sanctioned competition in nearly a year due to an unspecified injury. For it, he has 11 starts on a medical extension. As a result, he’s worth only a throw-in in the deepest of full-season salary rosters. The journeyman will be 47 years of age in March. Notable WDs Patrick Reed … He was a late entry, so we barely had enough time to miss him. Colt Knost … He ended the fall portion with a mid-tournament withdrawal at the Shriners due to a sore wrist. He then restarted with a pair of missed cuts. Now this. And suddenly, full-season investors are considering cutting bait. The good news is that he’s not a cooler as Adam Hadwin converted for a 59 with Knost alongside at La Quinta last week. Ken Duke … Effectively cleared his schedule to celebrate his birthday on Sunday. He’s 4-for-6 on the season, albeit without a top 40. Matt Every … After opening the 2017 portion with a pair of missed cuts, he’s 0-for-6 on the season and has missed 13 in a row worldwide over the last nine months. That time frame includes three months away due to an undisclosed injury. Even though he’s 597th in the Official World Golf Ranking, the 33-year-old is fully exempt through 2017-18 by virtue of a three-year exemption via his win at the 2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Willy Wilcox … Withdrew on Tuesday. Will sit on three starts via a medical extension. Just 55.399 FedExCup points from the goal. Power Rankings Recap – CareerBuilder Challenge Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR January 24 … none January 25 … none January 26 … none January 27 … Jonathan Byrd (39); Bryce Molder (38) January 28 … none January 29 … Ken Duke (48) January 30 … none

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