The Confidence Factor: TOUR Championship

Short of winning any tournament, it’s arguable that emerging as one of the 30 at East Lake in Atlanta is the hardest objective on the PGA TOUR. Of the 35 unique winners this season, 15 didn’t advance to the finale of the FedExCup Playoffs. Identifying the most confident golfers at the TOUR Championship isn’t too hard. Just read the field. Reaching the summit is one reason why each qualifier is treated to exemptions into the first three majors of 2018 as well as spots in the first two World Golf Championships. It’s nothing short of a life-changing achievement for the eight first-timers in the field. The other lane of confidence isn’t as smooth and fluid, but it matters more when making decisions for your fantasy lineups. This is where you determine who deserves the attention and your faith as a fit at East Lake. Billy Horschel caught such a blazing heater in 2014 that a kneejerk reaction would be to ignore how he prevailed by three strokes in the TOUR Championship. However, upon closer inspection, his formula for success was no more out of the ordinary than the two champions since. Horschel, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy showcased the complete game en route to their titles. All four identifiers below align with what worked for them and what projects to work for this week’s champion. East Lake’s putting surfaces average 6,200 square feet and could touch 12-and-a-half feet on the Stimpmeter, but they are not dastardly, devilish or diabolical. From just about every metric, they’re easier on average to solve and they are fair. With that accepted component factored in, we can widen our focus to use bogey avoidance as the catchall for short game and putting. In a nutshell, that explains why East Lake is a ball-striker’s paradise. Something to keep in mind as your watch, listen to and/or read about the tournament, since Tiger Woods won the FedExCup without winning the TOUR Championship in 2009, which was the inaugural year of the first iteration of the current points structure, every champion at East Lake also captured the FedExCup. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 20 in each statistic in the FedExCup Playoffs are listed only if they are scheduled to compete in the TOUR Championship. * – Finished inside the top 10 at the TOUR Championship in 2014, 2015 and/or 2016. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee 1  *Dustin Johnson 2  Jon Rahm 3  *Rickie Fowler 4  *Jordan Spieth 5  Brooks Koepka 6  Xander Schauffele T7  *Kevin Chappell T7  Charley Hoffman 9  Tony Finau 11  Jhonattan Vegas 12  *Paul Casey 15  *Justin Rose 16  *Justin Thomas 18  Patrick Cantlay Greens in Regulation T2  Patrick Cantlay T2  *Jordan Spieth 4  *Gary Woodland 5  Marc Leishman 7  *Justin Rose 8  Jon Rahm T9  *Sergio Garcia T9  *Dustin Johnson 13  *Rickie Fowler T16  *Matt Kuchar 19  *Paul Casey T20  Pat Perez T20  Kyle Stanley Proximity to the Hole 1  *Dustin Johnson 4  *Justin Rose T6  *Jason Day 10  *Jordan Spieth T11  Russell Henley T13  Daniel Berger 16  Jon Rahm 19  Brian Harman Bogey Avoidance 1  Patrick Cantlay 2  *Jordan Spieth 3  *Justin Rose T4  Pat Perez T4  Jon Rahm 6  *Dustin Johnson T8  *Justin Thomas 10  Marc Leishman T11 *Rickie Fowler T13  *Sergio Garcia T15  Daniel Berger T15  *Paul Casey T15  Webb Simpson T19  *Jason Day With only 30 in the field, the usual groupings below are sparsely populated, but half of the field is still represented. Jordan Spieth (2015) is the only prior winner of the TOUR Championship back this week. NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. CONFIDENCE MEN Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. BUILDING CONFIDENCE Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

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