One and Done: Wells Fargo

Since Day One on this job, I’ve professed that gamers are always learning. We make mistakes and we get unlucky as we attempt to hit moving targets, but we should always move forward with something of value regardless of the result. Last week’s lesson was not to invest in a typical option due to the team format. Lo and behold, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Daniel Berger, Henrik Stenson, Jason Day, Billy Horschel, Kevin Chappell, Gary Woodland, Daniel Berger, Russell Knox, Tony Finau, Thomas Pieters and Tyrrell Hatton were among the notables who missed the cut at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. The first four of that smattering ranked among the top nine in ownership percentage in PGA TOUR Fantasy One & Done presented by SERVPRO, but that’s another story that played out in my investment recap on the Thursday of the tournament. The majority of gamers clearly didn’t understand that teammates shared FedExCup points. While 3.4 percent collected Brooks Koepka’s 58.917 points, gamers would have accomplished the same objective by burning his brother Chase, something only nine gamers were savvy enough to do to retain the possibility of Brooks for another week. Meanwhile, only four gamers rostered champion Cameron Smith. Teammate Jonas Blixt was selected only once. Surely, they represented an unlikely pair to prevail, but only in name, not in terms of the potential outcome in a that format. My advice, which will carry over into the 2018 edition, was to burn a guy you won’t miss who is attached to a superstar. The stars aligned for 3.9 percent of us (including this fantasy columnist) who plugged in Justin Thomas’ partner, Bud Cauley. But again, as my recap of investments last Thursday revealed, the two actually tied for seventh place in ownership percentage. Why, oh why. If there’s any solace, FedExCup points distribution was softened due to the splits. For example, the trio of teams that placed T11 banked only 38.250 per golfer, which equates to a finish just inside a top 25. Good, but not great. Moving on, we’re facing a different challenge at the Wells Fargo Championship. Eagle Point Golf Club is an unknown, so it presents as close to a even playing field as we see. This adds another layer of enjoyment to our experience, but the random element ratchets up the anxiety. Note that the WFC is omitted in Future Possibilities. Webb Simpson and Carl Pettersson are members, but only Simpson warrants consideration. Bill Haas is also familiar with the turf, but we’re always hesitant to pull the trigger no matter how good he looks due to inconsistency. Because simple is better in situations like this, stick with a proven talent who transcends concern. If you’ve yet to burn Jon Rahm, now’s the time. If you drafted a list of golfers who have excelled on sites new to them in the recent past, he’d sit at the top. If Rahm is gone and you’ve struggled finding a spot for Francesco Molinari, he’s another easy call as one of the preeminent ball-strikers on the planet. Unfortunately, I’ve exhausted Haas, both Europeans and even Adam Scott (for whom it’s worth waiting, anyway), so the hunt continues. I’m saving Dustin Johnson for the TOUR Championship and the quadrupled points in the Playoffs. Kevin Kisner is in my crosshairs for THE PLAYERS. And I have Phil Mickelson earmarked for the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Continuing to focus only on the top half of my Power Rankings, that leaves me with Simpson and Paul Casey. If I was competing in a two-man format, that would be my tandem, but I’d lead with the Englishman because, well, it’s simple. Of the two, he’s the one not having to deal with the attention and potential distractions of a home game. FUTURE POSSIBILITIES NOTE: Select golfers committed to the tournament are listed alphabetically. Future tournaments are sorted chronologically and reflect previous success on the courses on which the tournaments will be held in 2016-17. All are pending golfer commitment. Daniel Berger … St. Jude (defending) Jason Bohn … Greenbrier Paul Casey … Travelers; WGC-Bridgestone; TOUR Championship Harris English … DEAN & DELUCA Jim Furyk … Memorial; U.S. Open; Canadian; WGC-Bridgestone; TOUR Championship Bill Haas … Wyndham Dustin Johnson … Masters; Byron Nelson; Memorial; St. Jude; U.S. Open (defending); Canadian; TOUR Championship Zach Johnson … PLAYERS; DEAN & DELUCA; John Deere; Open Championship; WGC-Bridgestone; TOUR Championship Chris Kirk … DEAN & DELUCA Kevin Kisner … PLAYERS; DEAN & DELUCA; Wyndham Martin Laird … Barracuda Graeme McDowell … Open Championship; WGC-Bridgestone; Wyndham William McGirt … Memorial (defending); Wyndham Phil Mickelson … St. Jude; Open Championship; PGA Championship Francesco Molinari … PLAYERS Kevin Na … Memorial; John Deere; Wyndham Patrick Reed … Wyndham; Dell Technologies Adam Scott … Memorial; U.S. Open; Open Championship; WGC-Bridgestone; Dell Technologies; TOUR Championship Webb Simpson … Greenbrier; Wyndham Kevin Streelman … Memorial CHAMPIONS ONE & DONE POSSIBILITIES Insperity Invitational The Tournament Course at Woodlands Country Club in Texas has hosted this tournament since 2008. After four years contested in October, it’s been a staple on the schedule in early May. It also hosted the Shell Houston Open from 1985-2002. Golfers listed alphabetically. Rob’s serious considerations in bold. Michael Allen … First-round 63 in 2011 equaled the course record, which still stands today. Two T4s and no worse than T16 in last five trips. Still pursuing first top 10 of 2017. Stephen Ames … Captured the Mitsubishi Electric for his third top 10 in five starts this season. He’s also gone a respective T9-T12 in the last two editions of the Insperity. Billy Andrade … Pesky slate with seven top 25s in as many starts this season, but only one went for a top 10. Best finish in three tries at The Woodlands was a T5 last year. Woody Austin … T9 here in 2015. Solid not spectacular 2017 features five top 25s. Olin Browne … Five top 15s in seven appearances, but outside the top 40 in his last four starts in individual competition in 2017. Fred Couples … Winner here in 2010 and runner-up in his last trip in 2014. Also shares the course record (63). Currently second in Schwab Cup money with no worse than a T6 in five starts. Joe Durant …  T4 (2015) and 11th (2016) in his two appearances. Four top-11 finishes in individual competition this year. David Frost … Steady as he goes. Co-runner-up here last year and currently 19th in Schwab Cup money thanks in large part to a T3 at the Mitsubishi Electric in mid-April. Fred Funk … The 2012 champ has only one top 10 here since (T9, 2014), but he’s 11th in Schwab Cup money in 2017. T3 at the Mitsubishi Electric three weeks ago. Mike Goodes … Horse for a course. Has a P2 (2013), a T2 (2016) and a solo third (2012) among nine visits. Still chasing his first top 20 of 2017, however. Jay Haas … Second in all-time earnings here with five top-six finishes. One top 10 in individual competition this season (10th, Mississippi Gulf Resort). Miguel Angel Jiménez … Tournament debut. Third in Schwab Cup money with a win and a second. Tops on tour in total driving and third in scoring average. Under par in every round. Bernhard Langer … Two-time champ at Woodlands CC and the tournament’s all-time money leader. Atop the Schwab Cup money right now. So, it’s business as usual. Tom Lehman … Two-time runner-up, a pair of T4s and no worse than T12 in six trips. Winner in Tucson in March. Jeff Maggert … Knows Woodlands CC better than anyone. Respectively T9-8th-T2 since his debut here in 2014. Four top 20s in individual competition in 2017. Scott McCarron … T12 in his first look last year. Fourth in Schwab Cup money upon arrival this time. A little inconsistent since winning the Allianz Championship in February. Colin Montgomerie … Just his fourth start of the year. Top 20s in the first three. Solo third here in 2014. Answered with T14 in 2015. Jesper Parnevik … Defending champ. Four-stroke title is his only win on the circuit. Scuffling in 2017. Kenny Perry … Lost in a playoff here in 2015. Surprisingly, it’s his only top-15 finish in six tries. Sits 14th in Schwab Cup money with four top 20s in individual competition. Gene Sauers … Lost in a playoff in Mississippi a month ago. It’s one of three top 10s on his season, but he landed outside the top 25 in his other three. P2 here in 2013; T23-T24-T12 since. Kevin Sutherland … Never a risky pick. Four T6s and a T7 in five individual starts this year. Top 20s in every starts over the last 12 months-plus. Esteban Toledo … Recorded his first PGA TOUR Champions here in 2013. Solo fourth in his title defense. Up-and-down 2017 features four top 25s and a pair of finishes outside the top 50. Kirk Triplett … A trio of top 10s offset a trio of results outside the top 20 this season. Top 20s in the last two editions of the Insperity, however, including a T7 last year. Duffy Waldorf … Top 10s in the last two editions. Solid 2017 slots him ninth in Schwab Cup money. Simply a strong option to connect the dots of the season in this format. Ian Woosnam … The Woodlands is the site of his only PGA TOUR Champion victory (2015) in 68 starts. No top 30s in individual competition this season.

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