Confidence Factor: Fantasy advice for the Memorial Tournament

For the 43rd-consecutive season, the PGA TOUR heads to Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, for the Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide. Jack Nicklaus plays gracious host this week as the invitational field of 120 players will battle for a purse of $8.9 million, a winner’s check of $1.602 million 500 FedExCup Points and a three-year exemption on TOUR. Nicklaus first had the vision for this tournament in the mid-60’s, and it became a reality with the first edition, won by Roger Maltbie, in 1976. MVGC has a proud history as it’s hosted the Ryder Cup, U.S. Amateur, Solheim Cup and Presidents Cup. Jason Dufner rolled to a three-shot victory last year and is back to defend his title. He’ll be looking to join the list of one as Tiger Woods, who won this event three years in a row from 1999-2001, is the only player to defend the title. Stretched to almost 7,400 yards (7,392) and playing to Par-72, MVGC will test the leaders to the end. Since 2005 there have only been two winners who won by more than two shots. Interestingly enough, Rickie Fowler was second to Jason Dufner by three shots last year and couldn’t close his 54-hole lead in 2010 as Justin Rose also won by three shots. Tiger Woods has won there five times, and Kenny Perry is second with three titles. It’s interesting to point out that four of the last eight winners broke their TOUR maiden at this event. It’s also interesting to point out that 25-of-42 tournaments have been delayed by the weather. Just as in life, sometimes we have to go backwards to move forward — and that was Dufner’s story last year. He opened with 65 to share the lead with David Lingmerth but his second round 65 saw him set the 36-hole scoring record. He sat five clear of the field entering Round 3 and looked to be in cruise control before a 77 knocked him out of the final pairing. Life comes at you pretty fast at MVGC and the train can get off the track quickly if shots start leaking off the tee and into greens. Dufner demonstrated his class and toughness as he rode the windy conditions on Sunday plus a weather delay to fire the second-best round of the day 68 to win by three shots on 13-under-par 275. Just six of 76 players posted scores in the 60’s on Sunday and only Anirban Lahiri went lower (65). Daniel Summerhays, the 54-hole leader by three shots, bested Dufner’s 77 by shooting 78 from the lead on Sunday. There was no mystery to Dufner’s success as he dominated tee-to-green but it is interesting to note his best finish prior to last year in five previous starts was just T19. He also MC at Colonial the week before. There are always exceptions to the rules, and the 2016 edition was exactly that as MVGC was run over. That week the absence of sunshine and wind turned MVGC into target practice. The pros set the cut at 142 (-2), the lowest in tournament history and MVGC had three rounds average less than 71. To put that in perspective, there were only nine tournament rounds in the history of the event to average less than 71. William McGirt took advantage and picked up his first and only TOUR win defeating Jon Curran in a two-hole playoff after both players posted 15-under 273. The top 19 players posted four over-par rounds for the week and they were all on Sunday while the top 26 were double-digits under-par. When it’s soft and windless, MVGC opens its doors to all comers. Dustin Johnson made 10 birdies in Round 1 to shoot 64 but finished third. Rory McIlroy was second in shots gained: putting as he finished T4. Curran had never played this event before. As we look back, we see more interesting angles and trends during David Lingmerth’s playoff victory over Justin Rose in 2015. It was the second year in a row with a playoff after Hideki Matsuyama defeated Kevin Na in 2014. Matsuyama won in his first time at MVGC and won for the first time on TOUR as well. Rose, similarly to Summerhays last year, couldn’t hold a three-shot lead. With perfect scoring conditions similar to 2016, Lingmerth made up those three shots to force and win the playoff. Jordan Spieth closed with 65 but missed out on the fun by two shots as Lingmerth and Rose both signed for 15-under 273. The cut fell at 143 (-1) to tie the record. Jason Dufner sat one shot off Lingmerth’s 36-hole lead of 12-under but played the weekend 74-75 for T24. Lingmerth’s win was the ninth by international players while Rose fell short of joining the multiple winners’ club. He would have been their seventh member. The only player to do the Colonial-MVGC is of course Kenny Perry. Buy yourself a beer if you knew that one! The forecast this week will be as important as the depth of the field as eight of the top 10 OWGR and 32 of the top 50 are in the field this week. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25 in each statistic on the 2017-18 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. * – Finished inside the top 10 since 2013 or is a former winner. Greens in Regulation Rank  Golfer 1  Henrik Stenson 2  *Jordan Spieth 3  *Adam Scott 4  *Kyle Stanley 5  *Kevin Streelman 6  *Gary Woodland 8  *Bubba Watson 11 Russell Knox 16 *Dustin Johnson 18 *Justin Rose 19 Emiliano Grillo 20 *Pat Perez 21 *Rickie Fowler 22 Bryson DeChambeau 25 *Keegan Bradley 26 *Justin Thomas SG: Approach the Green Rank  Golfer 1  Henrik Stenson 3  Keegan Bradley 4  Chesson Hadley 7  *Justin Thomas 8  *Jordan Spieth 10 Stewart Cink 11 Phil Mickelson 11 J.J. Spaun 14 *Tiger Woods 15 *Adam Scott 17 Emiliano Grillo 18 Bryson DeChambeau 19 *Chris Kirk 21 *Kevin Chappell 23 *Justin Rose 24 Zach Johnson 26 Marc Leishman Scrambling Rank  Golfer 1  Henrik Stenson 4  Jason Day 5  Louis Oosthuizen 6  *Jordan Spieth 7  *Rickie Fowler 8  *Justin Thomas 9  *Kevin Na 10 *Chris Kirk 11 Alex Cejka 14 *Kevin Streelman 17 *Jim Furyk 17 *Hideki Matsuyama 19 Brian Gay 20 *William McGirt 21 *Patrick Reed 23 *Justin Rose 24 *Ryan Moore 26 *Tiger Woods Par-4 Scoring Rank  Golfer 1  Henrik Stenson 2  *Justin Rose 4  *Dustin Johnson 4  *Justin Thomas 6  Jason Day 6  *Rickie Fowler 6  *Jordan Spieth 9  *Marc Leishman 9  *Hideki Matsuyama 12 Emiliano Grillo 12 *Patrick Reed 12 *Kevin Streelman 12 Chesson Hadley 12 Phil Mickelson 19 *Bubba Watson 19 Bryson DeChambeau 19 Rory Sabbatini 19 *Pat Perez 19 *Matt Kuchar Par-5 Scoring Rank  Golfer 1  *Dustin Johnson 3  *Justin Thomas 4  Tony Finau 5  Bryson DeChambeau 6  *Jordan Spieth 9  *Justin Rose 11 Phil Mickelson 14 *Rory McIlroy 14 Kevin Tway 14 *Kevin Na 17 Jason Day 17 Luke List 20 Cameron Smith 20 Billy Horschel 23 *Ryan Moore 23 Byeong-Hun An 23 Martin Laird 23 *Kevin Kisner 23 Zach Johnson 23 *Kevin Chappell 23 Patrick Cantlay After playing an American-style links course two weeks ago, followed by a tight-American classic at Colonial last week, the TOUR arrives outside of Columbus to a classic parkland design. Jack Nicklaus wanted MVGC to be known as the “Augusta of the North” so we should have some serious clues from that phrase alone. Only the greens at Augusta National are faster than the ones in Columbus (13 feet) according to Woods and Spieth. There is plenty of room to land it off the tee but errant shots, unlike Augusta National, will be penalized by rough off the fairway and plenty of trees. The defense of the course is the greens. The speed is there but so is the undulation and back-to-front slope design. Oh, and don’t forget about the three-plus inches of rough that players will have to navigate if they don’t arrive in regulation. Keeping the ball on the proper tier and putting uphill will be the way to go. Those who miss the green altogether and keep the ball above the hole will bring bogey or worse into play. Nobody has ever taken less than 100 putts in this event The good news is that the big stick will have plenty of usage this week after a week of careful navigation at Colonial. A look at the winners over the last 10 years suggests a multitude of styles can be successful. For every Woods, Rose and Matsuyama, there’s Matt Kuchar, Steve Stricker and McGirt who have also claimed the trophy. Dufner isn’t notoriously long, but he’s a wonderful iron player. The sign of a great event is a track that accommodates multiple styles and this week qualifies. My preference will be guys who can get it down the fairway and have lofted clubs in their hands to attack the greens. More loft usually means more accuracy. With slick, tiered greens and thick rough off the fairways and around the greens, there will be bogeys this week. In a “normal” weather year last year there were just six bogey-free rounds for the week. This isn’t the spot to be wild off the tee as the rough is penal and recovery shots into smallish greens are never easy. Those who don’t compound their errors and take their medicine will be just fine. Bogeys happen here, so those who are mentally tough and accept them will have an advantage. The streak of three straight first-time TOUR winners by the veteran Dufner last year suggests that winning experience isn’t needed around here. I’ll point out in 42 previous events here there have been seven first-time winners. If the forecast is the normal “crazy” weather, I’ll argue the exact opposite. Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week, so pay attention! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation.    

Click here to read the full article…