Historically speaking, Tiger’s odds to defend at East Lake are not in his favor

Two months ago, Tiger Woods won the TOUR Championship, the 80th career title of his illustrious PGA TOUR career. The percentages are not in his favor that he’ll be able to defend that title next August at East Lake. In the five seasons since the TOUR introduced its wraparound schedule, just 21 players (out of 150) have advanced to the FedExCup Playoffs finale without accruing a single FedExCup point in the fall portion of the season. That averages to just about four players a season – or 14 percent of the 30-man field who reach the TOUR Championship. Of course, Woods’ greatness is such that historical averages and low percentages are things that usually don’t apply to two-time FedExCup champion. And to be fair, he did make the TOUR Championship last season without benefit of a start in any fall event. He’ll hope to do the same this season. Two more past FedExCup champs also reached East Lake last season without acquiring a single point in the fall – Rory McIlroy and Billy Horschel. So, it’s not impossible. It’s just much easier if you’re able to get a quick start. That’s what makes this week’s RSM Classic extremely important for those looking for the last chance this calendar year to make a move. The crosshairs are firmly on the likes of Zach Johnson and Kevin Kisner at Sea Island. Both players opened their seasons last week in Mexico but failed to make the cut, thus rendering this week’s result a little more important. They’re not alone. Fellow TOUR winners Sangmoon Bae, D.A. Points, Wesley Bryan, Retief Goosen, John Huh, Padraig Harrington, Sean O’Hair, David Lingmerth, Jim Herman, Cody Gribble, Freddie Jacobson, Tommy Gainey, Brendon Todd, Tim Herron, Eric Axley, Jason Gore, Will MacKenzie, and Chad Campbell are also in the field this week but are yet to open their FedExCup accounts. Of the 147 TOUR members in this week’s field, 25 are still seeking their first FedExCup point. That’s just the former winners, let alone the rest of those looking to get a wriggle on. Joining Woods as high-profile players certified to start January on zero are former FedExCup and PLAYERS champion Henrik Stenson; another former PLAYERS champ in Sergio Garcia; plus Bubba Watson and Daniel Berger. You can already see the talent trying to cram into those likely few open spots at East Lake. To make matters more interesting, there is one less Playoffs event this season, as the season was reconfigured to end the FedExCup Playoffs before Labor Day. There will now be just two Playoffs events prior to the TOUR Championship. “I don’t necessarily think it gives you a head start now, I think it’s more so you don’t go into January behind the 8-ball because if you don’t play in the fall, if you don’t play well, you’re so far back,â€� Rickie Fowler explained when describing his starts at the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open and the Mayakoba Golf Classic. “You might be playing catch-up the first few months, on the west coast and then Florida.â€� Even Jason Day, who managed to make the TOUR Championship in each of the first four wrap-around seasons without playing the fall, relented to playing in Asia last season and again this season. Jordan Spieth managed the feat in 2017 but this season decided on fall golf. With the introduction of the Wyndham Rewards Top 10 system where regular-season play is rewarded financially, Spieth saw added value. “No matter what anybody says, that’s a goal of every PGA TOUR member … to try and win the regular season and FedExCup playoff bonus,â€� Spieth said. Unfortunately, with just six FedExCup points to his name he hasn’t exactly given himself the big leg-up that he wanted. Still, it’s better than nothing. One man who does have a head start is CIMB Classic winner Marc Leishman. The Australian was sick of looking at his name so far down the list in Hawaii each January but also saw the value in playing to try to free yourself up for the remainder of the season. “It is definitely very important to get off to a good start. You don’t want to get to the Masters next year and still trying to get into that top 125,â€� the four-time winner said. “Having success early in the season … it just makes you think about winning more and you can take a few more risks, which sometimes you need to do to win. “Sometimes early in the season if you’re one or two back, you don’t want to do anything silly because you don’t want to go from second back to 12th. But once you’ve got a good early start, you can really just think about winning and that’s exciting.â€� Of course next season, with more events to come before the turn of the calendar, early success will likely become even more critical. You can’t win the FedExCup in the fall … but you can certainly lose it.

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