Friday’s second round at THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES saw Scott Piercy ascend to the top of the leaderboard, while Brooks Koepka took a commanding share of the win probability. Here are the top 10 win probabilities through 36 holes according to our model: Koepka, who our model rates as the second-best player in this field, now has a better than 1 in 3 chance of winning come Sunday. Koepka finished Friday’s round on a high note, making eagle on the par-5 18th hole which added about 10 percentage points to his win probability. The leader, Scott Piercy, is estimated by our model to be approximately equal in ability to the average PGA TOUR professional. Koepka, on the other hand, is estimated to be about 1.5 strokes better per round. Therefore, we could instead think of their current win probabilities as describing a scenario in which two equally skilled players are separated by two strokes (with Koepka getting the two-stroke advantage). Friday’s low round belonged to Brian Harman, who shot an 8-under-par 64. Here is how he got it done: After an opening-round 76, Harman looked to be out of this event. The model gave him just a 7 percent chance at finishing in the top 20. However, his superb second round has revived his chances of having a good week: Harman is now 58 percent to finish in the top 20, and has an outside shot (1.4 percent) at claiming a victory this weekend. NOTE: These reports are based off the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut,� “Top 20,� “Top 5,� and “Win� probabilities every five minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10,000 simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of THE CJ Cup @ NINE BRIDGES, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.
Win probabilities: THE CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES, Round 2
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2nd Round 3 Balls – J. Svensson / H. Li / M. Manassero | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Haotong Li | +135 |
Jesper Svensson | +170 |
Matteo Manassero | +250 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – T. Kho / T. McKibbin / Y. Paul | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Tom McKibbin | +120 |
Yannick Paul | +145 |
Taichi Kho | +325 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – H. Xue / S. Tarrio / S. Jamieson | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Scott Jamieson | +100 |
Santiago Tarrio | +145 |
Han Xue | +425 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – A. Cockerill / Z. Jin / M. Kieffer | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Aaron Cockerill | +120 |
Maximilian Kieffer | +140 |
Zihao Jin | +350 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – M. Elvira / C. Jarvis / X. Luo | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Manuel Elvira | +105 |
Casey Jarvis | +130 |
Xuewen Luo | +475 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – R. Gouveia / A. Pavan / OM Prakash Chouhan | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Andrea Pavan | +135 |
Ricardo Gouveia | +145 |
Om Prakash Chouhan | +275 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – D. Hillier / J. Wang / D. Bradbury | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Daniel Hillier | +135 |
Dan Bradbury | +140 |
Jeunghun Wang | +300 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – S. Kodaira / S. Gallacher / N. Colsaerts | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Satoshi Kodaira | +120 |
Nicolas Colsaerts | +180 |
Stephen Gallacher | +250 |
2nd Round 3-Balls – R. Werenski / R. Sloan / C. Young | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Carson Young | +125 |
Richy Werenski | +185 |
Roger Sloan | +230 |
2nd Round 3-Balls – J. Walker / A. Smalley / S. Gutschewski | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Alex Smalley | -115 |
Jimmy Walker | +225 |
Scott Gutschewski | +300 |
2nd Round 3-Balls – G. Higgo / L. Griffin / D. Thompson | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Davis Thompson | +165 |
Garrick Higgo | +175 |
Lanto Griffin | +185 |
2nd Round 3-Balls – J. Vegas / B. Hossler / D. Wu | |
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Beau Hossler | +120 |
Dylan Wu | +185 |
Jhonattan Vegas | +240 |
Insperity Invitational | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
Steven Alker | +450 |
Padraig Harrington | +600 |
Stephen Ames | +1200 |
Jerry Kelly | +1400 |
Miguel Angel Jimenez | +1400 |
David Toms | +1600 |
Ernie Els | +1600 |
Alex Cejka | +2000 |
Retief Goosen | +2000 |
KJ Choi | +2200 |
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1st Round 3-Balls – J. Leonard / S. Ames / P. Harrington | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Padraig Harrington | +105 |
Stephen Ames | +170 |
Justin Leonard | +330 |
1st Round 3-Balls – S. Alker / R. Goosen / E. Els | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Steven Alker | -105 |
Ernie Els | +230 |
Retief Goosen | +260 |
1st Round 3-Balls – M.A. Jimenez / J. Kelly / P. Broadhurst | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Jerry Kelly | +160 |
Miguel Angel Jimenez | +160 |
Paul Broadhurst | +220 |
1st Round 3-Balls – V. Singh / K.J. Choi / D. Toms | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN | |
David Toms | +130 |
K.J. Choi | +170 |
Vijay Singh | +250 |
1st Round 3-Balls – C. Montgomerie / A. Cejka / D. Clarke | |
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Alex Cejka | +120 |
Darren Clarke | +170 |
Colin Montgomerie | +280 |
Scottie Scheffler Specials | |
Type: Scottie Scheffler Specials – Status: OPEN | |
Win Any Remaining Signature Event | -200 |
PGA Championship (Top 10 Finish) & US Open (Top 10 Finish) | +115 |
PGA Championship (Top 10 Finish) & The Open (Top 10 Finish) | +125 |
US Open (Top 10 Finish) & The Open (Top 10 Finish) | +135 |
All Remaining Signature Events – Top 10 Finish | +200 |
PGA Championship (Top 5 Finish) & The Open (Top 5 Finish) | +200 |
US Open (Top 5 Finish) & The Open (Top 5 Finish) | +210 |
PGA Championship (Top 10 Finish) & US Open (Top 10 Finish) & The Open (Top 10 Finish) | +240 |
PGA Championship (Top 5 Finish) & US Open (Top 5 Finish) | +280 |
Win 2 Remaining Signature Events | +450 |
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PGA Championship 2024 | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +350 |
Jon Rahm | +1200 |
Rory McIlroy | +1200 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1600 |
Brooks Koepka | +2000 |
Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +2500 |
Collin Morikawa | +2500 |
Max Homa | +2500 |
Patrick Cantlay | +2500 |
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Requests | |
Type: Requests – Status: OPEN | |
Rory McIlroy – RBC Canadian Open Winner | +1000 |
Miles Russell – Win a Major before 30th birthday | +3500 |
Scottie Scheffler & Nelly Korda – Win All Remaining 2024 Majors | +50000 |
US Open 2024 | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +350 |
Jon Rahm | +1200 |
Rory McIlroy | +1200 |
Ludvig Aberg | +1600 |
Collin Morikawa | +2000 |
Viktor Hovland | +2000 |
Brooks Koepka | +2500 |
Cameron Smith | +2500 |
Patrick Cantlay | +2500 |
Xander Schauffele | +2500 |
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The Open Championship 2024 | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +500 |
Jon Rahm | +1000 |
Rory McIlroy | +1000 |
Viktor Hovland | +1100 |
Brooks Koepka | +2000 |
Cameron Smith | +2000 |
Cameron Young | +2000 |
Collin Morikawa | +2000 |
Ludvig Aberg | +2000 |
Jordan Spieth | +2500 |
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Requests | |
Type: Requests – Status: OPEN | |
The Open Championship – Alex Noren – Top 20 Finish | +200 |
Solheim Cup 2024 | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
USA | -140 |
Europe | +135 |
Tie | +1200 |
Ryder Cup 2025 | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
USA | -135 |
Europe | +135 |
Tie | +1000 |