Confidence Factor: Fantasy golf advice for the Safeway Open

It’s welcome-back week! After a quick, one-week hiatus the brand-new 2019 PGA TOUR schedule kicks off in wine country with the third edition of the Safeway Open. The Silverado Resort & Spa (North Course) in Napa, California will play host for the fifth consecutive season and 144 players will have the first shot at claiming a share of the $6.4 million prize pool. The winner will take home 500 FedExCup points, $1.152 million and essentially a three-year exemption, including the rest of this Regular Season. With a new $10 million bonus system from Wyndham in place for the top 10 Regular Season FedExCup points leaders it won’t hurt to jump out of the gate strongly! It’s hardly a wonder why all of the new faces (21 rookies) are teeing it up right out of the chute. Silverado’s Resort and North Course just missed being severely damaged by the wildfires shortly after the conclusion of last year’s event. Friends of mine attended the event and took a few stunning pictures, safely of course, as the fire approached. Sadly, there were more than a few places that weren’t as fortunate as the resort as homes and businesses burned to the ground. All of the ticket sales this week will go directly to support fire relief in Napa Valley. Don’t forget the Fantasy Games at PGATOUR.COM are up-and-running as well. Check out the new format for the weekly game and enter your team(s)!   Tales of the Tape Emiliano Grillo joined Russell Henley as the only players in recent memory to win during their first official start on TOUR with status. Grillo didn’t steam-roll the field like Henley did at the Sony Open in Hawaii but he showed his nerve by holding off Kevin Na in a playoff. The rookie from Argentina was fresh off his victory at the Web.com Tour Championship and was in sizzling form. Grillo trailed by six shots at the halfway point to Brendan Steele and began the final round two back before forcing a playoff. Steele attempted to go wire-to-wire but his 76 on Sunday, his only round above par to this day in 16 rounds at Silverado, knocked him to T17. Grillo rode this momentum to the BMW Championship and barely missed out at East Lake, finishing No. 32, and Rookie of the Year. This was the second event at Silverado and these guys solved the puzzle quickly. The top 25 all posted 10-under or better and the cut was 2-under-par. After almost wiring it in the 2016 edition, Brendan Steele wasn’t going to miss his chance for redemption in 2017. In this edition he came from off-the-pace to stalk, catch and pass Scott Piercy and others. Piercy lit the place up, opening with 62 (12 birdies!) and setting, at the time, the course record. He backed up 62 with 67 and raced to a three-shot lead at 15-under after 36 holes. Gamers, this should clear anything up about how important scoring is this week! Steele played the weekend 67-65 and birdied his last three holes to set the Silverado tournament record of 18-under 270 and win by a shot. With nothing to lose on Sunday he posted the co-lowest round and made up a four-shot deficit to win outright and for the second time on TOUR. He led the field with 24 birdies on the week and for the second year running the entire top 25 was 10-under or better. The target on his back as defending champion didn’t bother Steele at all last year as he defended his title with another Sunday charge. With winds gusting up to 30 miles per hour Steele posted one of just eight rounds on Sunday in the 60s (69) and made up a two-shot deficit this time around. As easy as Silverado North had played leading into the final round, the gusting winds made life difficult as there were exactly zero bogey-free rounds to mention. Chesson Hadley stole the spotlight in Round 2 as his 61 included 10 birdies, an eagle plus a bogey. It was his only round in the 60s as he cashed T3 but did co-lead the event with Phil Mickelson as they had 23 circles on the cards. Rookie Tyler Duncan, as Steele did in the 2016 edition, ran out of gas in his attempt to go wire-to-wire. The weather during the week was perfect before the wind started whipping around on Sunday and four of the top six led the field in Par-5 scoring. Gamers, please be aware that Silverado has been the host for just the last four years. Previously this event was in San Martin, California, and Scottsdale, Arizona, so there’s nothing of value to gamers before the 2015 edition. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 30-ish in each category last season. * – Finished inside the top 10 since the move to Silverado in 2015. Ball-Striking Rank Golfer 1 Sam Ryder 8 Kevin Streelman 9 Patrick Cantlay 11 Corey Conners 16 *Scott Piercy 19 *Hudson Swafford 22 J.J. Spaun 23 Michael Thompson 25 *Brendan Steele 26 *Emiliano Grillo 26 *Tyler Duncan 28 Bronson Burgoon 30 Joel Dahmen 30 *Hunter Mahan Strokes-Gained: Approach-the-Green Rank Golfer 9 *Chesson Hadley 11 *Scott Piercy 15 *Ryan Moore 16 Patrick Cantlay 17 *Chris Kirk 20 Chez Reavie 23 *Phil Mickelson 27 *Tyler Duncan 28 Russell Henley Par-5 Scoring Rank Golfer 14 Ricky Barnes 17 Kevin Tway 17 Bronson Burgoon 17 *Phil Mickelson 17 Patrick Cantlay 24 Rory Sabbatini 24 Luke List 33 Peter Uihlein 33 Stephan Jaeger 33 Sam Saunders 39 Shawn Stefani Scrambling Rank Golfer 2 *Johnson Wagner 12 *Ryan Moore 16 Seamus Power 18 *Chris Kirk 20 Joel Dahmen 23 Ben Crane 27 Abraham Ancer 29 Chez Reavie 31 Aaron Baddeley 34 *Emiliano Grillo 36 *Nick Taylor Silverado Resort & Spa is owned by a group that features Johnny Miller so ball-striking will be at a premium this week. Graduated rough will max out at almost 4 inches of Bluegrass and ryegrass so those keeping it on the shorter grass will have more opportunities to attack flags. It should be noted that the greens are Bent/Poa annua and are usually in tip-top condition. If the weather cooperates they could get shiny on the weekend but won’t run more than 12 feet on the Stimpmeter. Bogeys need not apply this week as the pros will handle the 7,166 yards and rake the four Par-5 holes on this par 72. None of the Par-5 holes measure over 575 yards and should all be easy to attack, relatively speaking. Course Ratings: 2015: 25th-most difficult of 52 used on TOUR; (-0.296) 2016: 33rd of 50; (-0.893) 2017: 36th of 50; (-1.111) 2018: 23rd of 51; (-0.243) The defense, as with most courses when hosting these studs, is always firm-and-fast on the ground and wind in the air. The average winning score is a click above 15-under par for the first four events and I would expect something similar this week. Avoiding bogeys and rounds in the 70s will go a long way this week as will a hot putter to cash in birdie chances. Steele provides us plenty of clues as he’s 50-under par here in four events and that includes a 76! He is looking to become the first player since Steve Stricker (2009-11) at the John Deere Classic to go back-to-back-to-back on TOUR. Brooks Koepka also goes for three in a row at this season’s U.S. Open.                    Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. I have not included ANY DATA PREVIOUS TO 2015 as not to confuse course history with event history.  

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