Confidence Factor: Fantasy golf advice for the TOUR Championship

This is it! It’s hard to believe that the FedExCup Playoffs and the 2017-18 season concludes this week as East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta will determine the FedExCup champion. The top 30 players will all have a chance, mathematically, to claim the $10 million bonus with a victory. Only the top five in the standings are guaranteed to have their direct deposit filled with the bonus if they win Sunday afternoon. The other 25 will need to win AND have some help to be as fortunate. The event winner will take home $1.62 million, 2,000 FedExCup points and a trip to the Sentry Tournament of Champions regardless of their final position in the standings. All 30 players have already qualified for the first three major championships of next season and all invitational events. East Lake Golf Club, the home of Bobby Jones, has been the host for the final event since the inception of the FedExCup Playoffs in 2007. Tom Bendelow’s original design was redesigned by Donald Ross in its early years. Rees Jones has changed it twice most recently with renovations in 1994 and 2007 before flipping the nines before the 2016 event. This will be the second consecutive event on a Donald Ross footprint and third in the last five events (Sedgefield, Aronimink) on TOUR. TALES OF THE TAPE As the host to the final FedExCup event course history is an obvious factor this week but having plenty of it isn’t required. The three winners above were all 27 or younger when they claimed the final title of the TOUR season. Spieth’s 2015 victory was classic Jordan Spieth as his exquisite short game was on full display. His sixth win of the season saw him chase down veteran and 2013 champ Henrik Stenson. Trailing by five after 18 and three after 36, the wunderkind caught and passed the tournament and co-course-record holder by a shot entering the final round. As he watched the Ice Man melt with 72 in the final round, the 22-year old posted his fourth round in the 60s for a four-shot victory and the mantra of being the youngest-ever FedExCup champion. Scores were high as heavy rains and cool temperatures were featured in the final three rounds but the top 11 players finished par-or-better. The “old man” of the three winners above, Rory McIlroy, claimed his first FedExCup title after needing a four-hole playoff to see off Kevin Chappell and Ryan Moore. The Ulsterman won two FedExCup Playoffs events in 2012 but one of those was not the finale, reinforcing just about anything can happen. Starting the event at No. 6, McIlroy received the help he needed as top seed Dustin Johnson faded with 73 in the final round. If Chappell or Moore would have prevailed in the playoff, Johnson (T6) would have taken home the big boy bonus. McIlroy began the FedExCup Playoffs at No. 36, the second-highest ranked winner behind No. 61 Billy Horschel in 2014. Adam Scott cashed T8 and became just the fourth player to cash in the top 10 in all four FedExCup Playoffs events. Tony Finau is the only player who can join that club this year. I’ll point out the top five in this edition didn’t post a round above 70 for the week. For the second season running a player ranked in the 30s before the FedExCup Playoffs began took home the final prize of the season. Schauffele started at No. 33 and entered the week at East Lake No. 26. His birdie on the final hole that used the entire cup was enough to avoid a playoff with Justin Thomas. He became the fifth player to win the TOUR Championship in his first attempt but was just the first rookie. Only Camilo Villegas (2008 BWM Championship) has picked up his first TOUR victory in the FedExCup Playoffs. Tommy Fleetwood will be the only player that can equal that mark this week. Even though Schauffele won the event it was Justin Thomas (2nd) who was the FedExCup Playoffs champion. Thomas joins an elite club this year as he will defend his FedExCup Playoffs championship. Only Brandt Snedeker and Jordan Spieth have had this opportunity before. Schauffele will try and accomplish what has never been done as well: defend a title in the FedExCup Playoffs. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 30 in each category for the season. * – Finished inside the top 10 since 2008. Strokes-Gained: Off-the-Tee Rank  Golfer  1  *Dustin Johnson  2  *Bubba Watson  3  *Gary Woodland  5  *Jon Rahm  6  *Brooks Koepka  7  Francesco Molinari  7  Patrick Cantlay  9  *Rory McIlroy 13 *Justin Rose 14 Bryson DeChambeau 16 Tommy Fleetwood 17 *Tony Finau 19 *Billy Horschel 27 Kyle Stanley 28 *Justin Thomas 30 Aaron Wise Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green Rank  Golfer  1  *Dustin Johnson  2  Francesco Molinari  3  *Justin Thomas  4  Patrick Cantlay  5  *Justin Rose  6  Keegan Bradley  7  *Tiger Woods  8  Bryson DeChambeau 10 *Rory McIlroy 12 *Brooks Koepka 13 Tommy Fleetwood 14 *Tony Finau 17 *Jon Rahm 19 *Gary Woodland 20 *Rickie Fowler 21 *Hideki Matsuyama 23 Patrick Reed 29 *Paul Casey 30 *Bubba Watson Bogey Avoidance Rank  Golfer  2  *Webb Simpson  3  *Rickie Fowler  4  *Dustin Johnson  6  *Justin Rose 10 *Brooks Koepka 12 *Justin Thomas 14 *Billy Horschel 20 *Tiger Woods 22 *Tony Finau 22 *Rory McIlroy 25 *Hideki Matsuyama 27 Kevin Na 28 *Jason Day 31 Bryson DeChambeau Par-5 Scoring Rank  Golfer  1  *Dustin Johnson  1  *Tony Finau  1  *Justin Thomas  1  Tommy Fleetwood  5  *Brooks Koepka  7  Bryson DeChambeau  7  *Rory McIlroy  7  *Gary Woodland 10 *Billy Horschel 11 *Bubba Watson 11 *Justin Rose 13 *Webb Simpson 17 *Phil Mickelson 17 *Jason Day 23 *Jon Rahm 23 *Rickie Fowler 23 Keegan Bradley 23 *Tiger Woods 23 Patrick Cantlay The Par-70 layout at East Lake will stretch to 7,362 yards and for the third year running will have the nines flipped for the TOUR finale. The ultra-dwarf mini-verde Bermudagrass greens will run upward of 13 feet on the Stimpmeter and will provide adequate targets as they cover, on average, 6,200 square feet. Donald Ross designs feature greens that slope back-to-front so it’s hardly a surprise that those who can keep it below the hole will have the most chances to attack. The Zoysia/Bermudagrass rough never plays deep, less than 3.5 inches, but controlling the spin out of it will be the challenge. As we saw at Aronimink, finding the fairway off the tee allowed pins to be attacked and that shouldn’t change this week. After the 2007 event, Bentgrass was replaced by Bermudagrass so I’m not going deeper than the 2008 edition. The course record of 63 was last set in 2014 (Gary Woodland) and the “new” tournament record of 267 was posted in 2013. Bogeys will be made this week as this is a proper test of golf. Over the last three events only 15 of the 88 players to complete all four rounds had single-figure totals of bogeys. Schauffele only made seven last year to lead the field. It’s hardly a surprise that Paul Casey has finished in the top five the last three years as he has also been in the top 10 in bogey avoidance. Opportune birdies are great and taking advantage of the Par-5 No. 18, the easiest hole in the event last year, will be necessary. This will be the last time, for now, that we’ll all wave goodbye to the season in the month of September. This will also be the last time these guys compete in four FedExCup Playoffs events for a $10 million bonus. QUICK FACTS: • No player has defended in ANY FedExCup Playoffs event so all eyes are on Xander Schauffele this week. • Tiger Woods is the only player to win the FedExCup Playoffs twice (2007, 2009). • Spieth is the only player to go MC-MC to open the FedExCup Playoffs and win the title. • Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson have the most FedExCup Playoffs wins (4 each). • 2017 was the first year in six where someone has NOT won multiple FedExCup Playoffs events. That streak ended in Boston with DeChambeau claiming his second winner of the FedExCup Playoffs. • The last five years there have been five different players enter the FedExCup Playoffs at No. 1. Dustin Johnson held that honor this season. • Of the last five winners of the FedExCup Playoffs, four entered the final week No. 2 in the standings. Let’s congratulate Justin Rose on his title early! • Of the last 15 winners of a FedExCup Playoffs event, only Marc Leishman, Xander Schauffele and Keegan Bradley have ranked outside the OWGR top 15. • Camilo Villegas (2008), Rory McIlroy (2012) and Jason Day (2015) have won two FedExCup Playoffs events but have not taken home the title. #AnythingIsPossible. Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation.  

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