Confidence Factor: Fantasy advice for the Fort Worth Invitational

The PGA TOUR wraps up in Texas this season with its fifth and final event at the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial Country Club. Last week the TOUR was just south of Dallas at brand-new Trinity Forest. The script flips 100 percent this week as Colonial Country Club is one of the most respected and historic stops annually. The rich history of Colonial stretches back with this event to 1946 and is the longest running event on TOUR at the same course. The John Bredemus-Perry Maxwell design was made over by Keith Foster in 2008 but still resonates with the modern game over 80 years later. Playing 7,209 yards to par-70, it’s neither short nor long but it’s not straight either. Kevin Kisner returns in an attempt to defend his title. His winning total of 10-under-par 270 saw an American don the plaid jacket for the ninth time in the last 10 years with Adam Scott in 2014 being the exception. Kisner will try and attempt a feat that has only been accomplished by the great Ben Hogan: successfully defending. There’s a reason this place has the moniker of “Hogan’s Alley,” one of many to be fair, as the legendary Texan won this event five times and twice defended his victory. But, if leaning on Texans is your plan for selecting a winner this week, remember only two native sons have won in the last 30 years (Ben Crenshaw, 1990; Jordan Spieth 2016). The winner, regardless of where he’s from, will pocket $1,278,000 and 500 FedExCup points for his victory. As we can see above, there are multiple ways to find success at Colonial so it’s hardly a surprise this course rates so highly annually with the TOUR pros. The one factor that will have the attention of every player in the field will be the weather. Last year the cut fell at 144, 4-OVER-par, the highest total since 1999 as the event began with temperatures in the 90s and winds gusting up to 30 mph. As has been the case in eight times over the last nine, the 54-hole leader did not hang on to win. Webb Simpson began the final round two shots to the good, but Kisner rallied from three shots behind to claim victory. Kisner got up-and-down from the back bunker on the last to avoid a three-man playoff with Jordan Spieth, who with Jon Rahm and Sean O’Hair, led the field in birdies with 21. Rahm had the best chance of the trio to force the action but his 12-footer at No. 18 for birdie didn’t go. Kisner’s victory was his third consecutive top-five finish at Colonial. Steve Stricker had the low round of the week with 63. Every year when Colonial rolls around, gamers are reminded about how good Spieth plays here. The 2016 champ also has a pair of T2s, a T7 and T14 and 16 of 20 career rounds are in the 60s. The weather was wet in 2016 and ball-in-hand was used in closely mown areas the first three rounds. Spieth’s dominance included birdies on the final three holes and included making 150 feet of putts on the day. He co-led the field in birdies (22) and bogeys (5) and led the field in scrambling. Spieth’s victory was also symbolic as he won by three shots making him only the second winner in the last 11 years to win by more than one shot and he also is the only winner in the last eight years to hold the 54-hole lead. The top five players posted all four rounds in red figures for the week while the top 16 players accounted for only six total rounds over par. Spieth’s winning total of 263 was the second-lowest this decade behind tournament-record setter Zach Johnson in 2010 (259). Chad Campbell and Matt Kuchar both carded 63s for the co-low round of the week. Campbell is the last person to set the course record with 61 in 2004. He impressively set the mark with two bogeys. The Ben Hogan Award, presented this week annually since 2002 to the best collegiate golfer, has only had one winner at Hogan’s Alley. Chris Kirk was the first to claim both in 2015. He posted 12-under-par 268 as preferred lies in closely mown areas were in effect for Rounds 1 through 3 and through the green in the final round. Kirk made every birdie putt he looked at and led the field with 21 for the week. For those of you keeping score, Spieth circled 20 in this edition. Colonial, at par-70 doesn’t get “low” but there aren’t many bad rounds conceded, either. The top 17 players had a total of four rounds above par for the event. I wrote for THE PLAYERS Championship about the 54-hole leaders at that event who couldn’t close the deal. Interestingly enough, you’ll find some of their names here again this week as players that have lingered entering the final round. I’m not a detective but even I can connect those dots. 2015: Kevin Na and Ian Poulter, both 11 under. 2016: Webb Simpson and Ryan Palmer, both 11 under, one shot back. 2017: Webb Simpson was 9 under, two ahead of Danny Lee. Simpson and Lee were the final pairing at TPC Sawgrass two weeks ago and Na was in the hunt last week at Trinity Forest collecting T6. I’ll point out Palmer is a member at Colonial as well! NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25 in each statistic on the 2017-18 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. * – Finished inside the top 10 since 2010 or is a former winner. Greens in Regulation Rank  Golfer  2  *Jordan Spieth  4  *Adam Scott  5  *Kevin Streelman  7  *Pat Perez  8  *Scott Piercy 13 *Rickie Fowler 14 C.T. Pan 15 Russell Knox 18 Emiliano Grillo 19 Patrick Cantlay 20 Andrew Putnam 21 Cameron Percy 22 *Brian Harman 23 *Jon Rahm 25 *Adam Hadwin 25 *Chez Reavie Birdie or Better Percentage Rank  Golfer  2  *Jon Rahm  5  Justin Rose  8  Grayson Murray 10 Cameron Smith 12 Aaron Wise 14 Chesson Hadley 15 Bryson DeChambeau 16 *Ryan Palmer 17 Ollie Schniederjans 18 Sam Saunders 19 *Pat Perez 21 Brandon Harkins 22 *Jimmy Walker Scrambling Rank  Golfer  1  *Webb Simpson  3  *Jordan Spieth  6  *Rickie Fowler  7  Louis Oosthuizen  9  *Kevin Na 10 *Kevin Streelman 11 *Chris Kirk 12 Alex Cejka 13 *Chez Reavie 15 Cameron Smith 19 *Brandt Snedeker 21 Aaron Baddeley 23 William McGirt 26 Justin Rose   Par-4 Scoring Rank  Golfer  4  *Rickie Fowler  4  *Jordan Spieth  4  Justin Rose  9  *Webb Simpson  9  *Chez Reavie 13 *Kevin Streelman 13 *Scott Piercy 17 Chesson Hadley 17 Cameron Smith 17 J.J. Spaun 17 *Brian Harman 17 Emiliano Grillo 17 *Zach Johnson 17 *Matt Kuchar Last week the brand-new Trinity Forest had no trees, no rough and no water leaving its defense to 88 bunkers and Mother Nature. The massive landing areas off the tee consisted of 100 acres of Trinity Zoysia fairway. The Champions Bermuda greens provided 13,000 square feet, on average, to aim at and only were running at 11 feet on the Stimpmeter. What a difference a week makes! Colonial Country Club will provide tree-lined and dog-legged fairways that will require players to work the ball both ways off the tee and only provide 24 acres landing space. Errant shots will find Bermuda around 3 inches that will make the pros think twice as they attack greens that measure on average 4,500 square feet. With 85 bunkers plus four water hazards lurking, accuracy isn’t a premium this week but poor shots have a much better chance of being punished. Patience will be tested in the first five holes as Colonial will lull the field to sleep with a gimme par-5 (easiest last year) and a short par-4 to open. Then it’s off to the “Horrible Horseshoe” to see who is paying attention. Annually these holes play in the top five of most-difficult holes for the week. Those who don’t take advantage of the first two holes won’t be in a good mood anyhow, arriving to this trio that will set the tone for the rest of the round. The pros will have to adjust this week as well as Bentgrass greens return for the first time since the Masters. This is great news for all putters as the greens here are notoriously some of the best conditioned on TOUR so don’t be surprised to see plenty go in! As is the case with below-average sized greens, hitting the proper spot will give plenty of chances for birdie. As this event has shown over the years, one style of play doesn’t dominate and that’s one of the main reasons this field is always very solid. It doesn’t hurt that every hole doesn’t need a 300-yard carry, either. With only two par-5 holes and one measuring comfortably over 600 yards, the bomb-and-gouge crew won’t have much of an advantage this week. The 85 bunkers are plentiful but time has shown us, like the greens, they are almost perfect as well. The speedy Bentgrass greens and navigating the wind down the stretch on Sunday are both acquired tastes. Sergio Garcia (2001) is the last maiden winner and the last, first-time winner on TOUR so experience pays this week. As always, there are exceptions to the rule and I’ve counted 10 first-timers since 2010 that have cracked the top 10. The list of winners here also points to successful players at the Masters over the years as well. It shouldn’t be a surprise to learn that Perry Maxwell finished up Augusta National after Alistair Mackenzie’s death before the completion of the design. Colonial is not for everyone and Ben Hogan famously remarked that the only ball that can get you in trouble around this place is a straight ball. Sharp gamers will notice the players who are NOT here this week and might work backward from there. Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation.     

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