Confidence Factor: The Honda Classic

The PGA TOUR said goodbye to the West Coast last week as Bubba Watson claimed his third title at Riviera. The TOUR shifts this week to Florida and Palm Beach Gardens for The Honda Classic. The Champion Course at PGA National will present 12 water hazards, over 75 bunkers, palm trees and TifEagle Bermuda grass greens for the pros to navigate. We say goodbye to Poa annua, kikuyu, Cypress and Eucalyptus trees and benign California weather as the TOUR descends on south Florida. Full kudos to the American Honda Motor Corporation for continuing the longest sponsorship of a PGA TOUR event as their commitment dates all the way back to 1982, a span of 37 years. The Champion Course at PGA National has been the exclusive host to The Honda Classic since 2007, so any data before then won’t be of much use this week. As pointed out above, it is important for gamers to know that conditions facing the pros this week will be quite different than the conditions over the few weeks in California and Arizona. For the first time this season we’ll see water in play on the majority of holes and plenty of sand to catch errant ball-striking. Although just playing 7,140 yards to a par 70, the Champion Course has been annually one of the toughest on TOUR due to the water hazards, closely-mown areas around the greens, the “Bear Trap”, holes Nos. 15-17, and the uneven weather. This time of year in Florida, the weather can swing violently but the one constant is the wind. Its ever-presence is noted, as there have been no multiple victories and obviously no repeat champions. The winners have posted double-figures under-par just three times in 11 tries with Camilo Villegas going lowest at 13-under-par 267 to set the tournament scoring record. Brian Harman didn’t take very long to acclimate here when he set the course record, 61, in just his second competitive round in 2012 (T12). Rickie Fowler set the 54-hole record last year en route to the biggest winning margin since Villegas in 2010. His 12-under-par 268 included 21 birdies, as he became only the third winner to hit double-digits under-par. The numbers above show how he did it, but the key for Fowler was his putter. He holed all 57 tries inside seven feet for the week, which helped tremendously. He also sank a pair of monsters on the back nine on Sunday for birdies when the train was getting off the tracks. Over the last three editions of this tournament, there have been exactly 16, bogey-free rounds. Fowler owns three of them including one last year and two from 2016. Avoiding bogeys is not one-dimensional golf; it takes a complete bag and Fowler has one of the deepest in the game. The weather was excellent last year with temperatures in the low 80’s for most of the week. With Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia tied after 54 holes and holding a four-shot advantage on third place, Sunday 2016 felt like match play. The Aussie became one of the few in the history of the PGA TOUR to make a quadruple bogey (Round 3) and go on to win. He dominated the ball-striking numbers and was excellent in avoiding bogeys, minus the quadruple! Fowler was in the mix again as he was bogey-free through 36 holes and led by one at the halfway point. His 74-71 weekend saw him finish T6 and he finished T3 in bogey avoidance for the week. Justin Thomas stuck all four rounds in the 60’s to collect T3. The cool-ish weather saw only the top 10 break par for the week. Sponsor’s exemption Padraig Harrington picked up the big check in 2015 in a playoff over then-rookie Daniel Berger as both ended up 274 (-6). Berger fired 64, joint lowest round of the week, in the final round to force the two extra holes. The Monday finish was a byproduct of the instable weather mentioned earlier. Harrington became the oldest winner at 43 even though he tried to give the tournament away twice in the final round with a pair of double bogeys. There’s a reason why getting to double-figures is a big deal here! It’s simply not an easy track. Just ask 54-hole leader Ian Poulter (-9) His final round 74 saw him drop to T3. NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25 in each statistic on the 2016-17 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete in The Honda Classic. * – Finished inside the top 10 at The Honda Classic since 2013. Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green Rank  Golfer  6  *Justin Thomas  8  *Rory McIlroy 12 *Sergio Garcia 13 *Luke List 16 *Rickie Fowler 17 *Gary Woodland 18 Byeong-Hun An 19 *Adam Scott 20 *Lucas Glover 21 *Ryan Palmer 22 *Ian Poulter 24 Webb Simpson 25 Bud Cauley Bogey Avoidance Rank  Golfer  2  Chad Campbell  7  *Ian Poulter  9  Charles Howell III 10 *Lucas Glover 11 *Rickie Fowler 13 Webb Simpson 17 *Sergio Garcia 20 Martin Flores 21 *Justin Thomas 23 Seamus Power 24 John Huh 25 Ryan Armour Par-4 Scoring Rank  Golfer  2  *Justin Thomas  6  Stewart Cink  6  *Rickie Fowler  6  *Lucas Glover  6  Webb Simpson 15 *Daniel Berger 15 *Keegan Bradley 15 *Sergio Garcia 15 Robert Garrigus 15 Jamie Lovemark 15 *Ian Poulter 15 Brandt Snedeker Scrambling Rank  Golfer  1  *Ian Poulter    4  Webb Simpson  5  Chad Campbell  8  *Rickie Fowler 10 John Huh    12 Seamus Power 15 Brian Harman 16 Brandt Snedeker 18 Louis Oosthuizen 25 Charles Howell III Taming the Champion Course, as shown above, will take more than being a one-trick pony. There were plenty of categories to choose from to highlight this week, but I stuck with the ones that didn’t have a true outlier. With the wind blowing annually, it’s not a surprise that the last three winners have been veteran, world-class players. They know how to handle adverse conditions and have the tools in the bag to navigate the most difficult of courses. PGA National will also require patience and thought as playing shots with, across and into the wind also tests the space between the ears. The course will also force decisions on when to pull driver and when to leave it in the bag. The test is similar to Riviera, firm and fair, but with different, more penal hazards (wind, water). I’ll point out that Michael Thompson is the only winner out of 11 not to have multiple TOUR victories. Winning experience counts this week. The Champion Course is going to reward those who miss it in the right place and can avoid the big, crooked numbers. The TifEagle Bermuda grass will be a welcome sight to more than a few this week, as they return to their native grass. Breezy conditions shouldn’t bother the plethora of players who call this part of the world home or make their winters in Sea Island or Orlando; wind is a part of golf in paradise. Champion Course ratings since 2015: 2015: Second-toughest, non-major playing 1.832 strokes over-par; fourth-hardest course on TOUR. 2016: Second-toughest, non-major playing 1.768 strokes over-par; fifth-hardest course on TOUR. 2017: 16th-most difficult of the 50 courses used on TOUR playing .556 strokes over-par. I’ll let you guess which one of the three had the best weather! The Champion Course has two three-hole stretches that rate annually in the five toughest on TOUR. Hole Nos. 15 through 17, “The Bear Trap” gets all of the publicity as it was the major part of Jack Nicklaus’ redesign. Don’t sleep on the stretch from hole Nos. 5 through 7 either as they rank just behind “The Bear Trap” in difficulty. Throw in some of the toughest par-4 holes, water left and water right plus difficult scrambling conditions around the greens and gamers and pros alike will be hanging on for dear life Sunday afternoon. The international contingent has won seven of the 11 trophies since the move to the Champion Course, which reinforces the ball-striking and scrambling angles even more this week. Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week, so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention! Be sure to look for my post-round recap EMERGENCY 9 each night shortly after the conclusion of play! NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation. CONFIDENCE MEN Selected golfers with multiple cuts made sorted by rank on the tournament’s money list. BUILDING CONFIDENCE Sorted by best finish, selected golfers who are either finally finding form on the course or are still relatively new to the tournament but have enjoyed some success. OTHER SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE Sorted by most recent top 10s, selected golfers for whom it’s been a few years since their last.

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