Fantasy Insider: the Memorial Tournament

As you size up the remaining four tournaments in Segment 3 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO with the intent to maximize the value of notable golfers, you might consider slotting this week’s Memorial Tournament presented by Nationwide Insurance at the top of the list. See, because the fairways at Muirfield Village are generous and promote heavy use of the driver, gamers are poised to pile up more points than in the remaining three events. The fantasy scoring rewards the combination of distance and accuracy off the tee more than any other component in the game. Investing in that on a course that caters to it is pivotal. If you don’t want to believe in the theory, then base your decision on empirical evidence. Last year’s co-winners of the Memorial in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO totaled 1,521 points apiece. By comparison, the winners of the FedEx St. Jude Classic and Travelers Championship scored 1,430 and 1,487 points, respectively. (The U.S. Open doesn’t use ShotLink, so we’ll be employing the alternative strategy at Erin Hills in two weeks.) To find a comparable tournament to Memorial in 2017, we need to go back to the Shell Houston Open at which the fantasy champion scored 1,539 points. And just like this week’s test, the Golf Club of Houston’s Tournament Course favors distance over accuracy as a means to contending for the real trophy. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO My roster for the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational (in alphabetical order): Byeong Hun An Tony Finau Matt Kuchar Hideki Matsuyama Jon Rahm Adam Scott You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Jason Day; Jason Dufner; J.B. Holmes; Dustin Johnson; Brooks Koepka; Phil Mickelson; Pat Perez; Scott Piercy; Patrick Reed; Jordan Spieth Driving: Keegan Bradley; Jason Dufner; Emiliano Grillo; Dustin Johnson; Kevin Kisner; Sean O’Hair; Scott Piercy; Brendan Steele; Harold Varner III Approach: Jason Dufner; Dustin Johnson; Kevin Kisner; Scott Piercy; Ollie Schniederjans; Webb Simpson; Jordan Spieth; Brendan Steele Short: Dustin Johnson; Kevin Kisner; Brooks Koepka; Marc Leishman; Phil Mickelson; Pat Perez; Patrick Reed; Jordan Spieth; Steve Stricker Power Rankings Wild Card Brendan Steele … I’m not in denial that I’ve been his personal pitchman all season, but he’s deserved the support and the attention. Off since a quietly strong T6 at THE PLAYERS where he led the field in proximity to the hole from the rough and ranked T11 in greens hit and fifth in converting those chances into par breakers. His entire game has been on display most of the season and he leads the PGA TOUR in scrambling while ranking second in bogey avoidance. So, the 34-year-old projects to threaten a personal-best T20 that he recorded at last year’s Memorial in what was his sixth consecutive appearance. Draws Bud Cauley … Choice across the board. Making his fourth appearance. Hasn’t missed a cut but hasn’t cracked a top 30. Yet. Led last year’s field in both strokes gained: approach-the-green and strokes gained: tee-to-green. Also paced his peers in proximity to the hole from the fairway and par-5 scoring. The culprit behind the forgettable result (T38) was a uncooperative putter. He finished last of 75 in strokes gained: putting. Recent string of four top 10s is ample proof of confidence. Easily on the short list of the next first-time winners on the PGA TOUR. Phil Mickelson … There are numerous others in whom your expectations may be higher but who don’t deliver as consistently. Lost in the criticism over his four-year drought without a victory is the retention of the kind of form that yields the opinion in the first place. He’s survived 15 consecutive cuts upon arrival for what is his 17th appearance at Muirfield Village. Last year’s T20 was his seventh career in the tournament. Steve Stricker … Yes, it was tough omitting the 50-year-old from the Power Rankings, but gamers get it. Everything he does and gives us is gravy at this point. This isn’t to say that he’s ceremonial. Not by a long shot, but we never go into any season with elevated expectations for whoever is that year’s captain of the American team competition, as Stricker is for this year’s Presidents Cup. Yet, he’s been a fixture on leaderboards in 2017 on both the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions. As it pertains solely to the Memorial, DFSers shouldn’t hesitate no matter the cost. Brooks Koepka … Just his second start (T52, 2015), but you can see him winning here. Of course, we could say the same thing for the 27-year-old as it concerns many host tracks on the PGA TOUR. Just 162nd in greens in regulation, he maximizes those chances, ranking second in birdie-or-better percentage. That’s evidence of confidence on the greens (24th in strokes gained: putting), but he’s also third in par-5 scoring. So, his mission is simple: to hit more GIR. Hey, it was only a little over a month ago that he led the Valero Texas Open in the stat en route to a runner-up finish. J.B. Holmes … This is an unexpected leap of faith rooted in two things. First, he’s been a constant source of value at Muirfield Village since 2010. Last year’s T4 is a personal best in nine appearances. More recently, we cannot forget about the fact that he co-led THE PLAYERS after 54 holes before going off the rails with a closing 84. Sure, it was one bad round at the worst of times, but that’s still all it was. Statistically, he aligns with what Koepka presents, but Holmes is equipped with 26 more rounds of competition in this tournament. Pat Perez … Given his consistently strong form, it’s reasonable to chalk up last week’s missed cut as a result of his position in the late-early draw that averaged nearly three strokes higher than its counterpart over the first two rounds. You know that he won’t make excuses but he’s likely nonetheless eager to get back on the horse at Muirfield Village where he’s been perfect in each of his last seven trips. Jason Dufner … Just like with Perez, last week’s MC stung – it ended a consecutive cuts made streak at 10 – but Dufner was also slotted in the late-early draw. His game suits Muirfield Village, proven with a 3-for-3 record with two top 25s since 2014, so remain aboard for the rebound. Scott Piercy … Grinded through an illness at Colonial to finish T7. It’s his best result of 2017. He acknowledged a turnaround in his putting (due to setup), and it was realized in the stats as it was his first time in four starts that he’s recorded a positive measurement in strokes gained: putting. However, it’s possible that confidence borne from leading the field in strokes gained: approach-the-green the week prior at TPC Four Seasons took some pressure off his short game, but he also ranked 11th in the same stat last week. Whatever works for the streaky veteran who’s locked in right now. Charley Hoffman … First trip here since 2014, but his T19 that week is a personal best in what was his eighth consecutive appearance. That removes the doubt, but what invigorates us is his extension of solid play. Last week’s T24 at Colonial was his sixth top 25 since mid-February. Ryan Moore … Pretty much fallen in line with expectations in recent weeks, so let’s follow that trail. As a horse for many courses during his career, it’s time to anticipate value at Muirfield Village. He’s missed just one cut in 11 tries and has six top 20s, including three straight through 2015. Emiliano Grillo … Continues to loiter near leaderboards. Struts in with 10 consecutive cuts made with top 25s in his last two. Shared 11th place in his debut here last year. Sat one off the lead entering the final round, and then carded a 74. Keegan Bradley … Giving the nod due to a pair of T8s in the last two editions, but only as a tiebreaker in DFS as he’s regressed to the kind of inconsistency that concerned us in the immediate aftermath of the anchoring ban. Fades William McGirt … Even if he descended in better form, you’d be investing in the hope that he’s not distracted by the experience of defending his first PGA TOUR title. You’re best advised to let him go it alone, if for no other reason than as a learning exercise. Rickie Fowler … For a talent whose reputation as one who has trouble avoiding big numbers, that very knock has been fueled at Muirfield Village. In 11 rounds here since a closing 84 in 2012 (while paired with eventual champion Tiger Woods), he’s averaged 73.36 and has missed the last three cuts. Justin Thomas … This is based on failure to find a groove at Muirfield Village. Since a T37 in 2014, he’s missed two cuts. In those eight competitive rounds, his scoring average is 73 with no better than a 76 in his last three. On paper, the scorer should feast even if he wasn’t entering with substandard form. Consider that he placed T3 at THE PLAYERS in advance of last year’s Memorial. Kevin Chappell … It’s too soon to classify his MC-T35 record since breaking through at the Valero Texas Open as a hangover, but it would be tough to discern, anyway. The 30-year-old often appears out of nowhere before retreating to the pack. Case in point, his solo second at Muirfield Village in 2013 is his only top-35 finish on a 4-for-7 record, this despite what the data has supported for years. (On an aside, what’s remarkable about his, well, unremarkable history since the runner-up is that all 10 of his rounds range from 70 to 73.) Jim Furyk … Unlike Stricker, the 2018 U.S. Ryder Cup captain has failed to remain positioned at a level worthy of his expectations. Furyk has missed four consecutive cuts since a round-robin knockout at the Match Play. Course history buffs are going to be mesmerized by his phenomenal record at Muirfield Village. Let them. Zach Johnson … He’s made the cut in each of his last four tries but none went for a top 45 and he’s appeared just once in the last six editions. The 41-year-old has also struggled in recent months, having signed for only six red numbers following his last 21 rounds. Bubba Watson … Until he reverses course with his new golf ball, a successful history won’t matter anywhere. He’s 8-for-10 with a solo third in 2014 at Muirfield Village, but the lefty has no better than a T34 (Bay Hill) in full-field individual competition in 2017 that includes four missed cuts and a withdrawal. Gary Woodland … While entirely invasive from our perspective, it would be intriguing to know if tournament host Jack Nicklaus engages in a one-on-one with the struggling Woodland, if they already haven’t. It’s been 12 years now since Nicklaus’ 17-month-old grandson drowned accidentally, while it’s been only three months since Woodland and his wife lost one of their unborn twins. If it happens, it’s the kind of conversation that could go a long way at helping Woodland heal. And who knows, with prior success at Muirfield Village, including a personal-best T4 when he shared the 54-hole lead last year, its timing may never be better as he attempts to reconnect with form. Lucas Glover … A tremendous exercise of your conviction. If you can’t support him 100 percent, then back off. Ranking third on TOUR in greens in regulation, T14 in proximity, 15th in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 17th in adjusted scoring, he’s as strong a fit for Muirfield Village as anyone. The rub is that despite a fantastic season, he comes in with only one top-30 finish in his last six starts. That he’s gone 11 straight appearances here without a top 30 isn’t as relevant given his career second wind, but it doesn’t help. Rafa Cabrera Bello … Eschewed an appearance at the BMW PGA Championship, so he’s rested since a T4 at THE PLAYERS. If you were going to match physical frame with skill set, the rangy Spaniard would stand alongside fellow skyscrapers like Matt Kuchar and Brendon Todd who defy your eyes. Rather than attack with power and precision, they’ve used putting as the moneymaker. RCB is a long hitter, but his short game is the reason he contends. If he does this week, he’d be going against the grain of the formula that we expect to determine the final leaderboard. Placed T52 in his debut here last year. Russell Knox … Trap. A T11 at Harbour Town remains his only payday in a tournament with a cut in his last eight starts. Returning to Competition Charl Schwartzel … Even though he’s nursing a sore right wrist, he’s likely picked up a few fans among gamers who have sincerely appreciated the updates and photo on Twitter. For all of the optimism that you can inject into reasoning to invest, there’s as much if not more not to. Certainly, he’s not going to risk further damage no matter his affinity for Muirfield Village. The advice is not to roster and instead tip your cap if he pays off your opposition. Camilo Villegas … Walked off Colonial during his second round, but an explanation wasn’t released. At 89th in the FedExCup standings, he’s a virtual lock to return to the FedExCup Playoffs as long as he continues to contribute. The Colombian has been as close to a sure thing to do just that at Muirfield Village where he’s survived nine consecutive cuts. However, due to the unknown of last week’s mid-tournament WD, gamers are advised to swerve. J.J. Spaun … The rookie withdrew after an opening 71 at Colonial due to soreness in his ribs. Given the location of the pain, gamers should consider dancing around him during his debut at Muirfield Village. Brian Davis … Committed to the Web.com Tour’s Rex Hospital Open in North Carolina this week. It would be his first action since the 2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic. The 42-year-old has been sidelined due to an unspecified injury, although he battled neck and back discomfort earlier last year. Has five starts on a medical extension in the graduate reshuffle category on the PGA TOUR. Troy Kelly … Also scheduled to compete in the Rex Hospital Open. The 38-year-old hasn’t pegged it anywhere in earnest since the 2015 Wyndham Championship. He still has three starts on a Major Medical Extension on the PGA TOUR. Notable WDs Rory McIlroy … Continues to rest and recover from a minor setback with his injured rib. Plans to return to competition at the U.S. Open in two weeks. (For the record, he withdrew from the Memorial prior to the commitment deadline.) Justin Rose … Golf Channel’s Damon Hack reported that the Englishman will rest until the U.S. Open. Of course, Rose would have been an automatic in every fantasy format at Muirfield Village where he won in 2010 and has finished second twice, but he sat out last year’s edition as well due to a sore back. Harris English … He’s appeared at Muirfield Village just twice throughout his career, but it’d have been tough for weekly gamers to rally in support. Since a T14 at Torrey Pines four months ago, he’s just 6-for-12 with no top 25s. At 115th in the FedExCup standings and not yet exempt for 2017-18, the 27-year-old is in unfamiliar territory at this stage of the season. Power Rankings Recap — DEAN & DELUCA Invitational Sleepers Recap – DEAN & DELUCA Invitational Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR May 30 … none May 31 … Chad Campbell (43) June 1 … Michael Putnam (34); J.T. Poston (24) June 2 … Willy Wilcox (31); Bronson Burgoon (30) June 3 … none June 4 … Sung Kang (30) June 5 … none

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