Fantasy Insider: Waste Management Phoenix Open

You knew it wouldn’t last. After a couple of dry editions of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, including Hall of Fame-worthy weather in 2015, Mother Nature is elbowing her way back into the field this week. Downright dastardly conditions will linger through Thursday and into Friday. If they can play, scores could get ugly. Because three courses share host duties in the first three rounds, gamers must build lineups around where their choices land in the rotation. To find the last similar comparison of weather, we need to turn back the calendar to 2014. Jimmy Walker prevailed by one at 11-under 276, the highest winning aggregate of all since Monterey Peninsula Country Club’s Shore Course replaced Poppy Hills  Golf Club in 2010. After a relatively tame first round in which par-71 MPCC averaged 68.98, par-72 Spyglass Hill’s clip landed at 71.29 and par-72 Pebble Beach’s average was 71.63, scoring averages ballooned as follows: 2nd round 71.35 = MPCC (+0.35) 73.19 = Spyglass Hill (+1.19) 74.16 = Pebble Beach (+2.16) 3rd round 73.80 = Spyglass Hill (+1.80) 73.47 = MPCC (+2.47) 75.02 = Pebble Beach (+3.02) • Since MPCC joined in 2010, three of the four highest scoring averages in relation to par for any round occurred in the third round in 2014. Pebble’s second-round split that year ranks third-highest. Now, while Pebble Beach played the hardest overall three years ago, Spyglass Hill has ranked the hardest over the seven-year arc of the current grouping of courses. Of the 21 rounds tri-hosted, it’s yielded the highest scoring average in relation to par 12 times. On the other end of the spectrum, MPCC has scored the easiest in relation to par 13 times. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO will be measuring only actual scoring before awarding bonus points, so gamers will be get away with starts on Pebble Beach, if necessary. The potential points lost will be negligible. Instead, focus on getting four to the cut and into the final round. Remember, while the low 70 and ties will officially survive, only the low 60 and ties will actually play in the finale at Pebble Beach. Also remember that golfers who miss the cut may still play on Sunday if they’re inside the top 25 in the pro-am competition after 54 holes, but their scores will not be included in the official PGA TOUR event. As for significant changes to the properties, the green on the  par-5 14th hole at Pebble Beach was removed and rebuilt since last year. In case you’re curious for any results since, both the PGA TOUR Champions’ Nature Valley First Tee Open at Pebble Beach (in September) and the TaylorMade Pebble Beach Invitational (in November) were contested on the course. Also, MPCC’s front nine is 91 yards longer with improvements and extensions at Nos. 1, 4, 6 and 9. The course now measures 6,958 yards on the scorecard. My roster for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (in alphabetical order): Jim Furyk Dustin Johnson Phil Mickelson Justin Rose Brandt Snedeker Jimmy Walker You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Adam Hadwin; J.B. Holmes; Matt Jones; Greg Owen; Jon Rahm; Cameron Smith; Jordan Spieth Driving: n/a Approach: n/a Short: n/a Power Ranking Wild Card Matt Kuchar … He’s so good that it’s rare when he surprises, but that’s what happened last week when he led off the WM Phoenix Open with a field-low 64 in his 2017 debut. While he drifted into a share of ninth place by Sunday, it was still his first top 25 at TPC Scottsdale in eight years. Now the 38-year-old returns to Pebble Beach where he made 10 straight appearances through 2010, but not since. Threading the needle with his low ball flight on short courses is pretty much the formula to succeed. He likely won’t be cheap in DFS, but he’s a terrific spell for those who populated the Power Rankings and likely to draw more clicks. Draws Gary Woodland … Although he’s 0-for-2 here and hasn’t appeared in six years, crafty gamers will hedge on his length in the challenging conditions in store. He has no issues putting on Poa annua and has been connecting four rounds time and again for months. Think of him as a beefy contrarian in DFS. Adam Hadwin … Added a T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open for this third top-15 finish in his last four starts. While the size of the greens at Pebble Beach neutralizes his strength as a putter, there’s no ignoring the confidence with which he’s carrying himself lately. That alone is worth a flier in DFS even as he makes his debut in the AT&T. Sean O’Hair … Such an obvious option in DFS that you don’t need my approval. The converging trends suggest moderate expectations, but when you’re building a team, guys like this are invaluable. He’s perfect in the last eight editions of the AT&T and he’s survived 10 consecutive cuts on the PGA TOUR, including a T11 at the Sony and T9 at the CareerBuilder last month. Kevin Kisner … This is his first appearance since he took the TOUR by storm with three playoff losses in 2015. As I’ve written multiple times before, gamers are encouraged to dismiss just about everything before that. Once he built up his ball-striking to marry ridiculous short game, he’s a different golfer. Since a relatively rocky stretch early in 2016, he’s regained consistency throughout his bag. With a T4 (Sony) and a T25 (CareerBuilder) already on the board this year and success on small greens like Harbour Town and Colonial, he’s poised to make noise at Pebble Beach. Cameron Smith … No one contends every week, but it likely won’t be long before the 23-year-old Aussie appears frequently on PGA TOUR leaderboards. He tied for 11th here last year, so we know he has the goods to get around the Monterey Peninsula. Since recovering from an intestinal parasite, he’s 10-for-11 worldwide with five top 15s. Invest in DFS while he’s still on sale. Fades Nick Watney … It’s been two years since the Sacramento native took runner-up honors in this tournament. He’s logged only one top 10 anywhere since. Since sitting out over eight months last year due to a herniated disc, he’s 1-for-4 with a T35. While we expect that his back won’t act up despite the nasty weather, the absence of form is enough reason to abstain. Martin Laird … Found success with his putter en route to a T7 at TPC Scottsdale. That combination alone is fascinating given that he’s better known as a tee-to-green tactician, a skill that the Stadium Course rewards more than putting. This week, bad putters can hide a bit on the small greens at Pebble Beach, but that hasn’t helped the Scot in any of his three previous trips. He’s just 1-for-3 with a T69 in his last in 2012. Scott Piercy … Even if he landed here in attention-grabbing form, it would be time to hop off. He hasn’t made a cut in three tries in this tournament and hasn’t appeared since 2011. This is to say that the 38-year-old who rarely lets us down is set up to do just that. Spencer Levin … Sure, he’s not often in our crosshairs, but it’s not like I’m kicking him while he’s down. The Northern California native is 6-for-7 in this tournament with four top 25s. A T21 last year came on the heels of a slump similar to the one he’s currently experiencing. His only top-50 finish in the last six months was a solo 50th at the CIMB Classic. So, if you don’t mind throwing a curveball on a count when your opposition isn’t looking for it and with the expectation that hitting the target is a long shot, give him a whirl; otherwise, invest elsewhere. Brett Coletta … The 20-year-old Australian enjoyed a dynamite amateur career that included a win on the PGA TOUR of Australasia in 2016 and a runner-up finish at the Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship in October. In his pro debut, he made the cut at the SMBC Singapore Open three weeks ago. Now it’s time for his first appearance in a PGA TOUR event. Keep a pulse on him moving forward. Neal Lancaster … His inclusion here is just a note that if he doesn’t withdraw before his tee time in the opening round, the 54-year-old will be exhausting the last start on a medical extension that dates back to the 2010 season. That was before FedExCup points were used to determine fully exempt status on the PGA TOUR. He hasn’t made a cut on this circuit since the 2013 Greenbrier Classic, but it was less than a month ago that the veteran of 577 TOUR appearances lifted the trophy for winning the 50-59 division of the PGA Senior Stroke Play Championship in Florida. Returning to competition Pat Perez … Didn’t take any chances early in his first round at TPC Scottsdale and withdrew. Not long after, he wrote the following on Twitter: “Sorry folks. Shoulder has flared up again. Have to try and protect if [sic] for the rest of the year. Until next week.” You’ll recall that he underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder about 11 months ago. Now, with a 12-for-14 record at Pebble Beach with top 10s as recently at 2014 and 2015, gamers will want to latch back onto the recently red-hot 40-year-old, but you’re advised to bench him at best to start. There’s also the matter of how this week’s inclement weather affects his body. At third in the FedExCup standings, he risks more than he gains at this moment. Patrick Cantlay … Still only 24 years of age – he’ll celebrate his next birthday on March 17 – the former top-ranked amateur is making his long-awaited return to competition at Pebble Beach. A back injury has sidelined him for over two years, but the emotional distress over the sudden loss of his friend and caddie Chris Roth further delayed Cantlay’s return. Armed with 10 starts on a medical extension in the reshuffle category, gamers shouldn’t hesitate in scooping up the gifted right-hander as soon as he exhibits whiffs of the kind of form that generated his PGA TOUR card in the first place. Just remain patient as he’s yet to determine what kind of trajectory his schedule will take. Bobby Gates … Committed to the Web.com Tour’s Club Colombia Championship by Servientrega. If he plays, it’ll mark his first sanctioned competition since the 2014 Travelers Championship. Less than a month later, he had surgery on his left hip. The 31-year-old has five starts on a medical extension in the reshuffle category on the PGA TOUR, so he’s worth monitoring while he rehabs on the Web.com. Notable WDs Daniel Berger … Tied for 10th in his only appearance (in 2015) and was coming off a T7 at TPC Scottsdale, so this was a blow to all gamers. We’ll just have to pounce another week. Kyle Reifers … Placed T21 at Pebble Beach in his last start in 2015, but will take his first break of 2017 instead. It’s been over six months now since his last top-30 finish. Jon Curran … Restarted 2017 with four consecutive starts. He made the cut in each but failed to record a top 40. Sits 134th in the FedExCup standings despite seven paydays. Ernie Els … It was more surprising that The Big Easy committed in the first place. He’s pegged it only twice in the tournament (1996, 2015). Power Rankings recap – WM Phoenix Open Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR February 7 … none February 8 … none February 9 … none February 10 … none February 11 … none February 12 … none February 13 … none

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