Fantasy Insider: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Segment 2 of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO is winding down, and none too soon for most of us. While there are three weeks remaining, this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Shell Houston Open in two weeks are our only concerns pertaining to total starts for any golfer. Next week’s Puerto Rico Open will be played opposite the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at which the top 64 in the most recent Official World Golf Ranking qualified. So, when it comes to the chalk, that crowd will be in Austin, Texas, next week. Once again, PGATOUR.com is hosting a stand-alone contest just for the Match Play. It’s free to play and registration is open now at FantasyBracket.PGATOUR.com. It’s straightforward, but you’ll find the Rules as one of the tabs at the top. (Prizes are included on that page.) Overall standings, league play and other information is also available. As soon as the brackets are set at 9:00 p.m. ET on Monday, March 20, the fantasy selection process will begin. The window to save your picks will close five minutes before the first match on Wednesday morning. Remember, who you pick to win any pool or match will not count against your total starts remaining in the regular fantasy game. Have fun and good luck! My roster for the Arnold Palmer Invitational (in alphabetical order): Paul Casey Jason Day Zach Johnson Rory McIlroy Francesco Molinari Henrik Stenson You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Wesley Bryan; Tony Finau; Tyrrell Hatton; Marc Leishman; Hideki Matsuyama; Graeme McDowell; Pat Perez; Thomas Pieters; Justin Rose; Brandt Snedeker Driving: Tony Finau; Tommy Fleetwood; Rickie Fowler; Emiliano Grillo; Hideki Matsuyama; Louis Oosthuizen; Pat Perez Approach: Wesley Bryan; Tommy Fleetwood; Rickie Fowler; Charles Howell III; Hideki Matsuyama; Kevin Na; Justin Rose Short: Rickie Fowler; Tyrrell Hatton; Charles Howell III; Marc Leishman; Graeme McDowell; Thomas Pieters Power Ranking Wild Card Kevin Na … We’ll never know if his illness prevented a stronger performance at Copperhead last week, but the upside is that the missed cut allowed for two additional days to rest and recover for Bay Hill where he’s been perfect in six tries since 2009. And he’s been dynamite here with three top 10s and another pair of top 15s. He’s also played well enough early in 2017 to buy into the rebound. Consider him endorsed in all formats other than a One & Done. Draws Tony Finau … Kevin Na is the Wild Card for the reasons stated, but Finau is the snub from the Power Rankings. Vaulted up the leaderboard at Copperhead with a closing 64. He led the field in strokes gained: off-the-tee and strokes gained: tee-to-green. Oh, and he also ranked No. 1 in, wait for it, fairways hit! Also averaged 13 greens in regulation per round, good for a share of second-most. Finished sixth in proximity and second in both par-3 and par-4 scoring. Whew! Labeling him as a transcendent talent would irritate purists who prefer career arcs for such badges, but gamers know exactly what that means in our world. He’s proving that he can do it all. Charl Schwartzel … Coming off a sporty title defense of the Valspar Championship where he took outright sixth place and led the field in par-5 scoring. That’s enough to sign off on him as a spell in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO and in DFS. A 2-for-2 slate at Bay Hill is largely irrelevant since he hasn’t appeared since 2011. Graeme McDowell … The two-time runner-up at Bay Hill also posted a T10 in 2014, so there’s ample foundation for course history buffs. On top of that, he’s been dialed in for months, including T14s in each of the first two stops in Florida. Co-leads the TOUR in par-3 scoring and slots 20th in adjusted scoring thanks in great part to exceptional putting. Martin Kaymer … Because he’s 0-for-1 at Bay Hill (2008), those who don’t do their homework will miss out on one of the planet’s most consistently strong pros right now. He’s hung up a pair of T4s and three more top 25s in his last six starts worldwide. The PGA TOUR non-member would rank 17th in strokes gained: tee-to-green if he logged enough rounds to qualify. Charles Howell III … Every DFS’ best friend. Fantasy golf would be boring if everyone made as many cuts as the 37-year-old, but we know that it doesn’t lack for that emotion. Perfect in his last 11 starts this season with seven top-15 finishes. He’s also 14-for-15 at Bay Hill since 2002 with six top 25s. Pat Perez … All that matters is that he’s shook off shoulder discomfort at TPC Scottsdale to resume regular playing time. He’s registered three top 10s at Bay Hill, none since 2009, but ignore the drought. He loves it here, has 48 rounds of competition in his career (11-for-13) and has been playing the best golf of his life since returning from shoulder surgery. Marc Leishman … Yep, yep and yep. With seven top 30s in his last eight starts worldwide, he’s been as reliable as any rank-and-filer. Also 5-for-7 at Bay Hill with a T2 in 2011 and T17 last year. Currently second on TOUR in strokes gained: putting and ninth in adjusted scoring. Get him into your lineups. Emiliano Grillo … If you’re inclined to lean on past trends, then you’re expecting him to wake up at Bay Hill where he placed T17 as a first-timer last year. It ended a dry spell without a top 30 in full-field action to start the year. Lo and behold, that’s exactly the ramp into his return trip. Ranks 34th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Matthew Fitzpatrick … There’s a funny phenomenon that exists with emergent talents who haven’t mounted scar tissue. They always seem ripe for the challenge and fresh for our rosters. Then comes the scar tissue. For just about all intents and purposes, we’re still enjoying the honeymoon with the 22-year-old Englishman. Coming off a T16 at the WGC-Mexico Championship, the latest in a steady stream of impressive showings worldwide. Also already has six rounds on the books at Bay Hill and a T27 while flashing veteran touch on the greens. Just remember to temper those expectations. Fades Adam Hadwin … Not unlike our takeaway when Jon Rahm prevailed at Torrey Pines, we don’t expect Hadwin’s breakthrough victory at Copperhead to change him or his trajectory. However, we respect the predictable letdown that follows that kind of achievement. We also pause to tip our visors at the depth of the field at Bay Hill and the life experiences he’s enjoying. Props to the Canuck for honoring his commitment to the API as he also keeps an eye on his wedding next week. It just seems like a little much on which to focus in the short-term. Bubba Watson … Everyone worthy of teeing it up regularly on the PGA TOUR has a full plate relative to his life, but when a touring professional slumps, it’s easier to see the potential distractions on the periphery. The lefty is no exception, but his transition to the new golf ball hasn’t paid any dividends and that has been the recurring theme in this space. So, perhaps hold tight until next week’s Match Play to consider getting him into any lineup. Then, of course, the Masters is on the horizon. With plenty of live reps logged with the new ball, this stretch could very well define his season. Brooks Koepka … When you get down to the brass tacks, Bay Hill is the kind of property that should showcase his power. It has on occasion – he has a 66 and a 69 among four red numbers in seven rounds – and it will again this week, but his approach game has let him down too frequently. It’s put too much pressure on his putting (198th in scrambling after ranking T167 in greens hit) even though he leads the TOUR in average distance of putts made and slots 10th in birdie-or-better percentage after hitting GIR. Borne from those extremes has been inconsistency round to round and substandard form overall. Webb Simpson … The reasonable goal is a cut made, something he’s done in eight of his last nine starts this season. With no top 35s among only three paydays in his last six trips to Bay Hill, and with continued struggles on the greens, investment needs to be limited primarily to full-season formats. Danny Willett … Seeing that he remains a moving target, weekly leaguers are henceforth encouraged to swerve until further notice. Even when the Masters rolls around, the pre-tournament duties as a first-time defending champion are likely to warrant concern. We’ve seen it too many times to rule it out. Kevin Kisner … While there have been exceptions, he’s thrived much more often on shorter tracks and on tests with a par of less than 72. As much as I default with advising that you stick with what you know, I fully understand the tug to play him in a contrarian fashion at Bay Hill for he’s missed only one cut in the last nine months. Branden Grace … Continue to stick with the strategy of tossing him aside on longer par 72s, just like with Kisner. This is sound advice for full-season gamers with restrictions on starts. Anirban Lahiri … There are many more reasons to love than the alternative, but my concern is how he readjusts to Eastern Daylight Time after a T4 in India on Sunday. As global ambassador for his homeland in the sport, there are going to be stretches like this one when fatigue will set in. The 29-year-old is also making his debut at Bay Hill, so there’s merit to letting him go it alone. William McGirt … Even full-season gamers are waiting for something special from the 37-year-old, but history and form aren’t supporting reason for that thirst to be quenched this week. A T8 at Bay hill in 2013 is his only top-35 finish in six consecutive tries and most of his strongest results recently have occurred in limited fields. Returning to Competition Sean O’Hair … Withdrew at the midpoint of last week’s Valspar Championship with discomfort in his neck. That’s the kind of thing that’s always worthy of pause in our world even though he’s a fit 34 years of age. He’s performed very well at Bay Hill over the years and has converted on a trio of top-11 finishes in 2017, but only risk-takers in DFS should consider, and sporadically at that. Si Woo Kim … Called it quits after one round at Copperhead last week for already his third mid-tournament withdrawal of this season. Upon returning to action after his last (Farmers) at TPC Scottsdale, he told me that he’s going to play through a sore back. Certainly, very few golfers are 100 percent, but his only payday in his last seven starts is a T72 at the no-cut WGC-Mexico Championship. Notable WDs None. Power Rankings Recap – Valspar Championship Power Ranking, Golfer, Result 1 Henrik Stenson T7 2 Justin Thomas MC 3 Bill Haas T41 4 Gary Woodland T58 5 Charles Howell III T49 6 Ryan Moore T18 7 Graham DeLaet T22 8 Kevin Na MC 9 Patrick Reed T38 10 Jason Dufner T11 11 Daniel Berger MC 12 Matt Kuchar T22 13 Charley Hoffman MC 14 Billy Horschel MC 15 Wesley Bryan T7 Sleepers Recap – World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship Golfer, Result Scott Brown MC Lucas Glover T18 Jason Kokrak T58 Jimmy Stanger MC Nick Watney T14 Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR March 14 … none March 15 … none March 16 … Bud Cauley (27) March 17 … Aaron Baddeley (36); Patrick Cantlay (25) March 18 … none March 19 … Marc Turnesa (39) March 20 … Arjun Atwal (44); John Merrick (35)

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