NOTE: For the three events determining who advances in the FedExCup Playoffs, Rob is focusing only on golfers outside the latest bubble. In this second edition, all five below enter THE NORTHERN TRUST outside the top 70 in points. Ian Poulter (+500 for a Top 10) … On the cusp to qualify for the European Ryder Cup team for the seventh time, the 45-year-old from England opens his 14th Playoffs (he missed only the 2016 edition) slotted 79th in FedExCup points. He’s recorded a pair of top 10s at Liberty National, the more recent just two years ago (T10). In his most recent start, he posted a T10 at TPC Southwind where he had hung up top 10s on two prior occasions. His 2021 also includes a T3 at Colonial at the end of May and a T4 at the Scottish Open in July. Sits a distant 198th on the PGA TOUR in greens hit, but he’s more than covered by ranking fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting, ninth in scrambling and 31st in adjusted scoring. But most of all, it’s that dangling Ryder Cup spot that warrants an elevated expectation at THE NORTHERN TRUST. Matt Wallace (+1200 for a Top 10) … No matter the fact that FedExCup points were quadrupled in 2019 and tripled last year, exactly one guy rose from outside the top 100 upon entry to inside the top 70 to advance to the BMW Championship. Seeded 102nd, Harold Varner III turned the trick with a T3 at Liberty National in 2019, and Russell Henley (101st) replicated with a T8 at TPC Boston in 2020. Wallace currently is 107th and the only Sleeper featured here outside the top 90. The 31-year-old Englishman also is making his Playoffs debut. He’s a long shot to qualify for the European Ryder Cup team, but a strong performance at THE NORTHERN TRUST is all but necessary to force the hand of captain Padraig Harrington. Wallace is rested since a T8 on his home circuit three weeks ago. He’s 21st on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 44th in adjusted scoring. Seamus Power (+1100 for a Top 20) … With six consecutive top 20s punctuated by his breakthrough victory at the Barbasol Championship a month ago, the Irishman is recently familiar with crashing leaderboards. He’s among a seriously quiet smattering of rank-and-filers responsible for gaudy analytics this season. Before you look up the backs of the trading cards of guys like Hank Lebioda and Brice Garnett, Power will match across the board. He’s 28th in greens hit, 24th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, fifth in scrambling and T1 in par-4 scoring. He’s just 73rd in the FedExCup in part because he has been limited to 16 starts due to conditional status pre-victory. Harold Varner III (+900 for a Top 20) … He’s 72nd in the FedExCup, so he might as well just leverage that position into one more start. In fact, as noted in Matt Wallace’s capsule above, HV3 was a force at Liberty National two years ago, finishing T3 to advance from the 102-hole. Strongest tee to green, but that’s not a backhanded way of saying that he loses strokes with his putter. He doesn’t. Top 15s in two of his last four starts this summer. Henrik Norlander (+2000 for a Top 20) … The 34-year-old Swede has rested a sore back for a couple of weeks but it’s fair to respect his personal time to enjoy the afterglow of competing in his first Olympics. Two weeks before that, he placed T5 at the Barbasol Championship with an uncharacteristically strong game on the greens. Typically, he’d need to contend to lead a field in scoring opportunities so as to see how much sticks, er, drops. At 87th in the FedExCup, he’ll need another good week with the putter to compliment his ball-striking that ranks 15th on TOUR. Liberty National is the kind of stage that rewards it more often than others. Odds were sourced on Tuesday, Aug. 17. For live odds, visit betmgm.
Sleeper Picks: THE NORTHERN TRUST
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Hero Indian Open | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
Jordan Smith | +650 |
Joost Luiten | +750 |
Keita Nakajima | +750 |
Matteo Manassero | +1100 |
Ewen Ferguson | +1400 |
Sam Bairstow | +1400 |
Adrian Otaegui | +1600 |
Romain Langasque | +1600 |
Fabrizio Zanotti | +2800 |
Alex Fitzpatrick | +3000 |
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2nd Round 3 Balls – D. Ravetto / A. Sandhu / P. Figueiredo | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
David Ravetto | +110 |
Ajeetesh Sandhu | +185 |
Pedro Figueiredo | +275 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – S. Baisoya / D. Lawson / R. Gouveia | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Ricardo Gouveia | +165 |
Deyen Lawson | +170 |
Sachin Baisoya | +185 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – R. Khan / D. Van Tonder / Y. Sandhu | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Daniel Van Tonder | +120 |
Rashid Khan | +180 |
Yuvraj Sandhu | +250 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – J. Goth-Rasmussen / J. Lyras / K. Pratap Singh | |
Type: 1st Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
John Lyras | +170 |
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen | +175 |
Karan Pratap Singh | +175 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – E. Kofstad / L. Scalise / J. Weon Ko | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Jeong Weon Ko | +130 |
Lorenzo Scalise | +150 |
Espen Kofstad | +280 |
2nd Round Match-Up – S. Bairstow v A Fitzpatrick | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN | |
Alex Fitzpatrick | -120 |
Sam Bairstow | +100 |
2nd Round Match-Up – J. Luiten v R. Cabrera Bello | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN | |
Joost Luiten | -165 |
Rafa Cabrera Bello | +125 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – R. Cabrera Bello / A. Fitzpatrick / S. Kapur | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Alex Fitzpatrick | -115 |
Rafa Cabrera Bello | +180 |
Shiv Kapur | +400 |
2nd Round Match-Up – J. Veerman v M. Kieffer | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN | |
Johannes Veerman | -110 |
Maximillian Kieffer | -110 |
2nd Round Match-Up – J. Morrison v T. Lewis | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN | |
James Morrison | -110 |
Tom Lewis | -110 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – J. Veerman / A. Hidalgo / J. Morrison | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Angel Hidalgo | +150 |
Johannes Veerman | +170 |
James Morrison | +210 |
2nd Round Match-Up – M. Kawamura v A. Sullivan | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN | |
Andy Sullivan | -120 |
Masahiro Kawamura | +100 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – E. Ferguson / M. Kieffer / A. Sullivan | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Ewen Ferguson | +125 |
Andy Sullivan | +175 |
Maximilian Kieffer | +250 |
2nd Round Match-Up – C. Jarvis v M. Penge | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN | |
Casey Jarvis | -135 |
Marco Penge | +105 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – M. Penge / M. Kinhult / L. Nemecz | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Lukas Nemecz | +165 |
Marco Penge | +170 |
Marcus Kinhult | +190 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – J. Parry / D. Hillier / S. Bairstow | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Sam Bairstow | +130 |
Daniel Hillier | +180 |
John Parry | +225 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – M. Schneider / C. Jarvis / M. Schwab | |
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Matthias Schwab | +150 |
Casey Jarvis | +180 |
Marcel Schneider | +190 |
2nd Round 3 Balls – M. Kawamura / F. Lacroix / K. Kobori | |
Type: 1st Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN | |
Frederic Lacroix | +130 |
Masahiro Kawamura | +180 |
Kazuma Kobori | +225 |
2nd Round Match-Up – B. Stone v G. Migliozzi | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN | |
Guido Migliozzi | -125 |
Brandon Stone | +105 |
2nd Round Match-Up – S. Sharma v A. Otaegui | |
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN | |
Adrian Otaegui | -120 |
Shubankar Sharma | +100 |
The Galleri Classic | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
Steve Stricker | +350 |
Steven Alker | +650 |
Miguel Angel Jimenez | +1100 |
Jerry Kelly | +1200 |
Stephen Ames | +1400 |
Ernie Els | +1600 |
Alex Cejka | +1800 |
Brian Gay | +2000 |
KJ Choi | +2500 |
Kevin Sutherland | +2500 |
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Major Specials 2024 | |
Type: To Win A Major 2024 – Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +125 |
Jon Rahm | +225 |
Rory McIlroy | +225 |
Viktor Hovland | +225 |
Brooks Koepka | +350 |
Ludvig Aberg | +350 |
Patrick Cantlay | +400 |
Collin Morikawa | +450 |
Justin Thomas | +450 |
Wyndham Clark | +450 |
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The Masters 2024 | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
Rory McIlroy | +1100 |
Jon Rahm | +1200 |
Brooks Koepka | +1800 |
Jordan Spieth | +2000 |
Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
Hideki Matsuyama | +2500 |
Joaquin Niemann | +2500 |
Justin Thomas | +2500 |
Ludvig Aberg | +2500 |
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PGA Championship 2024 | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +700 |
Jon Rahm | +1000 |
Rory McIlroy | +1000 |
Viktor Hovland | +1400 |
Brooks Koepka | +1600 |
Bryson DeChambeau | +2000 |
Patrick Cantlay | +2000 |
Wyndham Clark | +2000 |
Xander Schauffele | +2000 |
Cameron Smith | +2500 |
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US Open 2024 | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +700 |
Rory McIlroy | +800 |
Jon Rahm | +900 |
Viktor Hovland | +1000 |
Cameron Smith | +1600 |
Brooks Koepka | +1800 |
Cameron Young | +2000 |
Collin Morikawa | +2000 |
Ludvig Aberg | +2000 |
Patrick Cantlay | +2000 |
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The Open Championship 2024 | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
Scottie Scheffler | +800 |
Jon Rahm | +1000 |
Rory McIlroy | +1000 |
Viktor Hovland | +1100 |
Brooks Koepka | +2000 |
Cameron Smith | +2000 |
Cameron Young | +2000 |
Collin Morikawa | +2000 |
Jordan Spieth | +2500 |
Ludvig Aberg | +2500 |
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Solheim Cup 2024 | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
USA | -140 |
Europe | +135 |
Tie | +1200 |
Ryder Cup 2025 | |
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN | |
USA | -135 |
Europe | +135 |
Tie | +1000 |