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Home » Golf Betting » Jon Rahm the (betting) man to beat

Jon Rahm the (betting) man to beat

Posted on January 24, 2023 Posted in Golf Betting
Two starts. Two wins. The calendar hasn't hit February yet, but so far 2023 is the year of the Rahm. The Spanish sensation is coming off victories in his last two PGA TOUR events, including The American Express last week. He won twice on the DP World Tour late last year as well, and is now turning his attention to Torrey Pines, where he earned his first TOUR win in 2017 and also added the 2021 U.S. Open. It's rare to see a favorite as short as Rahm is this week, priced at +450 according to BetMGM. The last time the pre-tournament price drifted that low was around a man named...Jon Rahm. Yes, it was just last year that Rahm teed off at the same price at the Mexico Open at Vidanta. He went on to win that tournament. Rahm's odds are within range of the numbers tied to Tiger Woods in his prime. Woods won this tournament seven times, priced in the range of even money (+100) at his peak, and he, like Rahm, also won a U.S. Open on the South Course. And while Rahm has a ways to go to reach the lofty standards of 2000s Tiger, the question remains: is he really that much better than the other 155 players in this week's field? Consider the array of head-turning prices on the Spaniard this week, via BetMGM: +450 to win, -120 for a top-5 finish, -250 for a top-10, -450 for a top-20 and -1200 to make the cut. For perspective, consider that the San Francisco 49ers are +125 underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles in Sunday's NFC Championship game - a two-horse race. The price comparison implies that oddsmakers believe a Rahm top-5 out of a 156-player field is more likely than a team on a 12-game winning streak making the Super Bowl. In the last 15 editions of the Farmers Insurance Open the favorite has triumphed just twice - both were Woods when he was +100 in 2008 and +700 in 2013. But Woods (+200) and Rahm (+1000) were both pre-tournament favorites ahead of their respective U.S. Open wins at Torrey. When Rahm won in 2017, he was +5000 as a young up-and-comer. But that's the last time he surprised anyone with his success in La Jolla. Rahm has opened as the betting favorite for this tournament every year since, barring 2020 when Rory McIlroy edged him out. Since his 2017 win, Rahm's Farmers Insurance Open results read T29-T5-2-T7-T3. He has not finished outside of the top 10 since 2018, enough to justify his status as favorite even without another win. Of course, the U.S. Open victory did come in this span. "If you consistently can drive it in the fairway on this golf course and far enough, you’re obviously going to be able to be more aggressive than most people," Rahm said of the keys to playing well at Torrey Pines. "The main thing is predominantly for pretty much almost every hole, the proper miss is to the right, so that’s why Tiger has such success here. Sometimes if you miss the fairway by five yards or 100 to the right, it doesn’t matter… the entire back nine, 13 through 17, left is a no-go, left is dead. "(And with) poa annua greens and how they can get a little bit bumpy... you’re going to see people miss a lot more putts, (so) it puts a little bit more stress on those ball-striking abilities and that’s why I think I’ve had success in the past. I’ve been able to drive it really well around here and be aggressive in a lot of situations and be successful with it.” Rahm anchors the marquee group in Round 1 on PGA TOUR LIVE, playing alongside Tony Finau and Justin Thomas. He is +115 to be the victor in this group on Wednesday, with Finau +200 and Thomas +240. Viewers can watch his opening round on the South Course via ESPN+ Wednesday, and there are a number of opening-round specials focused on the tournament's top draw: To make five or more birdies/eagles: -200 In 18 rounds on the South Course in the Farmers Insurance Open Rahm has made five or more bridies/eagles seven times. To shoot 69 or lower: -150 In 18 rounds on the South Course in the Farmers Insurance Open Rahm has shot 69 or lower seven times. Birdie 1st hole: +300 On the 17 occasions where Rahm has opened his round on the South Course in the Farmers Insurance Open on the par-4 first hole, he has four birdies, eight pars and five bogeys. To make an eagle: +450 In 18 rounds on the South Course in the Farmers Insurance Open Rahm has made eagle six times. To be bogey-free: +1100 In 18 rounds on the South Course in the Farmers Insurance Open, Rahm has been bogey-free just one time (2020). But what about the contrarian look? Well, the average starting price for the winners at the Farmers Insurance Open over the last 15 years has been +4360 spanning from Woods at +100 in 2008 to Scott Stallings at +20000 in 2014. The average drops to +3380 over the last five editions. While Rahm showed he can win as a heavy favorite, if we go back to the Fortinet Championship in September 2021, where he entered the week as an incredible +300 favorite, we can see the opposite result occur also. With his mind perhaps on the Ryder Cup to be played the week after, and some stomach issues early in the week, the superstar would miss the cut in Napa. So far there are no indications of illness in San Diego and, while this is his third start in four weeks, the only fatigue may be from lifting all of his new-found hardware. Winning three straight starts on the PGA TOUR has only happened twice in the last decade. It's very rare. Rahm is good enough to be the next to do so but it won't be easy. "It’s very nice that if I’m going to have the short turnaround after a win, after a tough Sunday... that I'm coming to a golf course that I’ve had a lot of success and a lot of positive memories at," Rahm adds. "It’s always refreshing to come here and I love this tournament so much that every time I come, I have that extra motivation to hopefully win it again. Got my first win here and I would love to be able to be a two-time champion like many people have done in the past."

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Type: 3rd Round 2 Balls - Status: OPEN
Taylor Pendrith-185
Doc Redman+150
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Type: 3rd Round Match-Up - Status: OPEN
Beau Hossler-150
Kevin Streelman+125
3rd Round Match-Up - T. Pendrith vs T. Detry
Type: 3rd Round Match-Up - Status: OPEN
Taylor Pendrith-110
Thomas Detry-110
3rd Round Six Shooter - A - A. Smalley / D. Burmester / J. Bramlett / M. McNealy / T. Pendrith / T. Detry
Type: 3rd Round Six Shooter - Status: OPEN
Alex Smalley+400
Thomas Detry+400
Joseph Bramlett+425
Maverick McNealy+425
Dean Burmester+450
Taylor Pendrith+450
3rd Round 2 Balls - W. Simpson v K. Streelman
Type: 3rd Round 2 Balls - Status: OPEN
Webb Simpson-125
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3rd Round 2 Balls - R. Knox v J. Dufner
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Russell Knox-240
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3rd Round 2 Balls - C. Hadley v Z. Blair
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3rd Round Match-Up - G. Sigg vs R. Knox
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3rd Round Six Shooter - B - G. Sigg / J. Rose / R. Knox / S. Stallings / T. Moore / T. Hoge
Type: 3rd Round Six Shooter - Status: OPEN
Justin Rose+375
Tom Hoge+375
Scott Stallings+425
Greyson Sigg+450
Taylor Moore+450
Russell Knox+475
3rd Round 2 Balls - T. Moore v J. Walker
Type: 3rd Round 2 Balls - Status: OPEN
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Jimmy Walker+165
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Type: 3rd Round 2 Balls - Status: OPEN
Andrew Putnam-165
Adam Long+135
3rd Round 2 Balls - S. Power v T. Detry
Type: 3rd Round 2 Balls - Status: OPEN
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3rd Round 2 Balls - J. Dahmen v K. Kisner
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Joel Dahmen-140
Kevin Kisner+115
3rd Round Match-Up - A. Putnam vs K. Kitayama
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Andrew Putnam-110
Kurt Kitayama-110
3rd Round Match-Up - M. Fitzpatrick vs S. Power
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Matt Fitzpatrick-120
Seamus Power+100
3rd Round Match-Up - S. Stallings vs T. Moore
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Scott Stallings-120
Taylor Moore+100
3rd Round Six Shooter - C - J. Spieth / K. Mitchell / M. Fitzpatrick / M. Kuchar / S. Power / V. Hovland
Type: 3rd Round Six Shooter - Status: OPEN
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Seamus Power+425
Keith Mitchell+450
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3rd Round 2 Balls - G. Sigg v M. NeSmith
Type: 3rd Round 2 Balls - Status: OPEN
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Type: 3rd Round 2 Balls - Status: OPEN
Joseph Bramlett-200
David Lingmerth+165
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Type: 3rd Round Match-Up - Status: OPEN
Alex Smalley-120
Joseph Bramlett+100
3rd Round 2 Balls - A. Smalley v M. Hubbard
Type: 3rd Round 2 Balls - Status: OPEN
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Keith Mitchell-120
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3rd Round 2 Balls - K. Mitchell v K. Chappell
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Kevin Chappell+240
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3rd Round Match-Up - B.H. An vs B. Taylor
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Type: 3rd Round 2 Balls - Status: OPEN
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Chad Ramey+180
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Jordan Spieth-250
Ryan Palmer+200
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Type: 3rd Round Match-Up - Status: OPEN
Viktor Hovland-115
Jordan Spieth-105
3rd Round 2 Balls - V. Hovland v D. Willett
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3rd Round 2 Balls - B. Taylor v H. Hall
Type: 3rd Round 2 Balls - Status: OPEN
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Type: 3rd Round Match-Up - Status: OPEN
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THE PLAYERS Championship 2023
Type: Outright - Status: OPEN
Jon Rahm+800
Rory McIlroy+1000
Justin Thomas+1200
Scottie Scheffler+1200
Collin Morikawa+1400
Patrick Cantlay+1800
Matt Fitzpatrick+2000
Viktor Hovland+2000
Xander Schauffele+2000
Max Homa+2500
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Type: Requested Specials - Status: OPEN
Jon Rahm Top 20 Inc Ties - All 4 Majors+500
Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas & Scottie Scheffler - All Make Cut - All 4 Majors+750
Both Rory McIlroy & Jon Rahm - Win a Major+1200
Both Justin Thomas & Scottie Scheffler - Win a Major+2000
Both Rory McIlroy & Tony Finau - Win a Major+2000
Both Rory McIlroy & Jon Rahm Top 20 Inc Ties - All 4 Majors+2200
Both Cameron Smith & Will Zalatoris - Win a Major+2800
Both Justin Thomas & Scottie Scheffler Top 20 Inc Ties - All 4 Majors+2800
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Both Tom Kim & Viktor Hovland - Win a Major+5000
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Type: Win A Major - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+225
Jon Rahm+250
Cameron Smith+350
Collin Morikawa+350
Justin Thomas+350
Scottie Scheffler+350
Tony Finau+400
Dustin Johnson+450
Will Zalatoris+450
Cameron Young+500
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To Win 2+ Majors 2023
Type: Win 2+ Majors - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+1800
Jon Rahm+2000
Cameron Smith+2500
Justin Thomas+2500
Scottie Scheffler+2500
Collin Morikawa+2800
Dustin Johnson+4000
Tony Finau+4000
Will Zalatoris+4000
Jordan Spieth+5000
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Type: Win 3+ Majors - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+6600
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Cameron Smith+15000
Collin Morikawa+15000
Justin Thomas+15000
Scottie Scheffler+15000
Will Zalatoris+20000
Dustin Johnson+25000
Tony Finau+25000
Cameron Young+30000
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Type: Win 4 Majors - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+25000
Jon Rahm+35000
Cameron Smith+50000
Justin Thomas+50000
Scottie Scheffler+50000
Collin Morikawa+75000
Will Zalatoris+75000
Dustin Johnson+150000
Jordan Spieth+150000
Matt Fitzpatrick+150000
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Type: Top 20 All 4 Majors - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+500
Jon Rahm+600
Justin Thomas+700
Scottie Scheffler+700
Cameron Smith+800
Will Zalatoris+800
Collin Morikawa+900
Jordan Spieth+1000
Matt Fitzpatrick+1000
Patrick Cantlay+1000
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All To Win A Major 2023
Type: All Win A Major - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy / Jon Rahm / Cameron Smith+6000
Rory McIlroy / Jon Rahm / Justin Thomas+6000
Rory McIlroy / Jon Rahm / Scottie Scheffler+6000
Rory McIlroy / Collin Morikawa / Jon Rahm+6600
Rory McIlroy / Jon Rahm / Tony Finau+7000
Rory McIlroy / Cameron Smith / Justin Thomas+7500
Rory McIlroy / Cameron Smith / Scottie Scheffler+7500
Rory McIlroy / Cameron Young / Jon Rahm+7500
Rory McIlroy / Jon Rahm / Will Zalatoris+7500
Rory McIlroy / Justin Thomas / Scottie Scheffler+7500
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Type: Make Cut All 4 Majors - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy-150
Jon Rahm-135
Justin Thomas-125
Scottie Scheffler-120
Cameron Smith-110
Will Zalatoris+110
Jordan Spieth+120
Matt Fitzpatrick+120
Xander Schauffele+120
Collin Morikawa+125
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Type: Outright - Status: OPEN
Jon Rahm+900
Rory McIlroy+900
Justin Thomas+1200
Cameron Smith+1400
Jordan Spieth+1400
Scottie Scheffler+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Dustin Johnson+2000
Will Zalatoris+2000
Xander Schauffele+2000
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Type: Outright - Status: OPEN
Jon Rahm+1000
Rory McIlroy+1000
Collin Morikawa+1400
Justin Thomas+1400
Scottie Scheffler+1400
Cameron Smith+1600
Jordan Spieth+1600
Dustin Johnson+2000
Patrick Cantlay+2200
Brooks Koepka+2500
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Type: Outright - Status: OPEN
Jon Rahm+1000
Rory McIlroy+1000
Justin Thomas+1100
Scottie Scheffler+1100
Collin Morikawa+1400
Cameron Smith+1600
Patrick Cantlay+1800
Jordan Spieth+2000
Matthew Fitzpatrick+2000
Will Zalatoris+2000
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Type: Outright - Status: OPEN
Rory McIlroy+900
Jon Rahm+1000
Scottie Scheffler+1400
Collin Morikawa+1600
Jordan Spieth+1600
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Cameron Smith+1800
Matthew Fitzpatrick+2000
Xander Schauffele+2000
Dustin Johnson+2500
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Type: Outright - Status: OPEN
USA-185
Europe+200
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