Fantasy Insider: The Honda Classic

The Honda Classic concludes the first third of the 2017-18 season. If you hadn’t already thought about that, then it’ll feel either like a lot of golf has been played already or like we’ve barely started. Certainly, there’s more than enough room for PGA TOUR members to spread their wings and map out the requisite 15 starts to retain fully exempt status for next season, but it also means that the likes of Sergio Garcia and Louis Oosthuizen, both of whom are making their season debuts this week, will be competing in nearly half of the remaining 32 events just to keep their cards. And with no guarantee for a deep run into the FedExCup Playoffs, expect both to range north of a dozen before THE NORTHERN TRUST. This is to say that in the best of ways, it feels like the season starts now. With the Florida Swing upon us, the second of four World Golf Championships on deck and all four majors and THE PLAYERS on the horizon, we’ll be treated to one feast after another. Be sure to stretch your legs and plan accordingly as well. Success in all season-long games like PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO occurs in moderation. The annual cross-country shift east introduces more frequent opportunities on bermudagrass greens. While fields are usually stronger, there’s almost always turnover atop leaderboards because of the comfort level so many Southeastern natives possess on these putting surfaces. When stuck and interested in a flier, consider veterans who have demonstrated proficiency on it. In a tournament like the Honda at which it’s known in advance that the wind is going to blow consistently throughout the day, I’m often asked who that favors. A default reply includes groupings of Australians, Texans and those who have solved it before on the host course. However, one of the most statistically relevant components is ball flight, specifically apex height. As it self-defines, it reflects the average measurement of tee balls (on par 4s and par 5s) from the ground to its highest point on the arc. Before reviewing the data, you can close your eyes and visualize who keeps it lowest to the turf most often. Brandt Snedeker, Jason Dufner and Matt Kuchar probably rush to mind. (Of the trio, only Kuchar isn’t in the field at PGA National.) But you don’t need to guess. For the data, click here for apex height. Conveniently, it’s sorted with the highest at the top. If you don’t think that there’s enough of a sample size this season, select any year from 2007-2017 in the upper-right corner of the page for archived numbers. As you scroll, there’s no doubt that you’ll be both pleasantly surprised and shocked at what you discover. Then, as a learning exercise, monitor golfers in whom you’re investing and avoiding in the wind this week. And just like that, you’re on your way to logging knowledge for the next time that wind presents as a challenge. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO My roster for The Honda Classic (in alphabetical order): Rickie Fowler Sergio Garcia Tyrrell Hatton Rory McIlroy Justin Thomas Gary Woodland You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks. Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Jason Dufner; Chesson Hadley; Brian Harman; Patton Kizzire; Alex Noren; Ryan Palmer Driving: Russell Knox; Alex Noren; Ryan Palmer; Brandt Snedeker Approach: Rafa Cabrera Bello; Jason Dufner; Chesson Hadley; Patton Kizzire; Ryan Palmer Short: Luke Donald; Jason Dufner; Brian Harman; Patton Kizzire; Brandt Snedeker Power Rankings Wild Card Adam Scott … This is his second consecutive week in this position but it makes sense until he gets a grip of his putting. The Aussie finished second-to-last in strokes gained: putting at Riviera, and that’s despite holing the longest putt of the week from outside 76 feet. He prevailed at PGA National just two years during what was a blistering stretch, and he’s recorded a top-15 finish in his last three trips overall, but expectations are lower this week. Draws Martin Kaymer … This is all about your philosophy. He’ll polarize us as a community given the likelihood that he’ll make the cut, but his price tag in DFS might convince you into other pieces. Finished T4 in the wind at PGA National last year during what a measurably stronger run of form than his current. Now coming off a T53 at Riviera where he didn’t do anything to impress. My advice is to double down on his potential here. He re-upped his PGA TOUR membership for a reason and his success in Florida is inspiring. Rafa Cabrera Bello … Not unlike his fellow European above, the Spaniard checks so many boxes to relieve us of stress and keeps the door swung open for a chance come Sunday. Similarly, RCB has experience at PGA National having finished T37 last year. Since the 2017 Playoffs, he’s strung together 12 paydays, seven of which for a top 25. Patrick Reed … Because his short game has been reliable amid recent inconsistency in scoring, and because he’s 3-for-4 at PGA National with a (front-loaded) T7 in 2015, I’m willing to let the slack all the way out this week. He’s too potent to out-and-out ignore in any given week, so it’s strange that he slides into contrarian position. Capitalize on it. Daniel Berger … Gotta stick with him at home, on bermuda and while he’s flashed form strong enough that it can’t be dismissed. Seeks to even the score at PGA National where he’s missed two cuts since losing in a playoff in his debut in 2015. Russell Knox … He was one of my Sleepers for the Waste Management Phoenix Open where he’d missed the cut for his only MC of the season. Now rested since a T15 at Pebble Beach, the 32-year-old has to be giddy to connect his resurgence with PGA National where he lost in a playoff in 2014 and placed T3 the following year. We should be as well. Luke Donald … Not unlike his glistening record at Harbour Town, he’s an automatic at PGA National. Perfect in seven appearances with four top 10s and 16 red numbers. Dylan Frittelli … The University of Texas product and former teammate of PGA TOUR winners Jordan Spieth and Cody Gribble has been on some kind of heater since November. It includes a win, a T2, a T4 and six more top 20s! The 27-year-old South African is worth the love on form alone even though he’s making his tournament debut. We’ll see quite a bit of him as he crashes onto most if not all of the biggest stages the rest of the way. Emiliano Grillo (DFS) Chesson Hadley (all) Kevin Kisner (DFS) Ryan Palmer (all) Ian Poulter (DFS) Peter Uihlein (DFS) Jimmy Walker (DFS) Nick Watney (DFS) Fades Tiger Woods … He’s never made it easy on himself, that’s for sure. Torrey Pines and Riviera challenges everyone and few expect to find their games on those tough tracks no matter how familiar. After a respective T23 and MC on the West Coast, he now attempts to tackle PGA National in his backyard. It’s been four years since his last appearance and the wind could exacerbate the issues he’s been having off the tee. We saw him navigate Albany to a point in December, but those fairways are more accommodating. Worst case, this is a bonus start given his last-minute decision to commit, but we can sit this one out. Webb Simpson … Missed the cut in his last start at TPC Scottsdale, site of multiple successes, and now returns to PGA National for the first time in seven years. So, he presents as a reach despite rather solid form for months. What’s worth monitoring is if he tilts back toward elevated long-term value versus the spot start motivated by course history. Louis Oosthuizen … We never learned why he opted out of the WGC-HSBC Champions after tweeting that he was preparing to travel. That wouldn’t normally remain relevant three months after the fact, but he’s making his season debut at The Honda Classic. In the interim, the South African recorded top 10s at home and in Mauritius. He then suffered a freak injury when two of his fingers got jammed in between luggage carts at an airport. After a month off, he returned to a T49 in Singapore, and then missed the cut in Dubai. He doesn’t slump, but he still needs to prove that he’s connecting with reliable form. He’s also just 1-for-4 at PGA National with a T21 last year. Jhonattan Vegas … Solid history at PGA National with a T12 (2014) and T4 (2017) among four cuts made in five tries, but he strides in on a mini-slump of two straight missed cuts. Since we already accept him as a hot-and-cold option, gamers are going to do what feels best, but he doesn’t possess a horse-for-a-course profile. Byeong Hun An Keegan Bradley J.B. Holmes Ryan Moore Thomas Pieters Bernd Wiesberger Returning to Competition Nicholas Lindheim … Withdrew during his opening round of last week’s stop at Riviera due to an illness. It extended a rough patch during which he’s failed to cash in four straight starts. Has two top 15s on the season and ranks 15th in strokes gained: putting, so perhaps the return to bermudagrass greens presents the elixir he needs. Given his propensity to surprise, he’s worth a peek in DFS in his Honda debut. Notable WDs Austin Cook … Taking a break after playing in six of the seven events to start 2018. Will miss out on qualifying for next week’s World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship into which the top 10 in the FedExCup standings at the conclusion of The Honda Classic will gain entry. The rookie is currently 12th. Bryson DeChambeau … Can’t complain about a T5 in his debut at TPC Scottsdale, but he’s backpedaled from the surging form with which he concluded the fall. Currently 37th in the FedExCup standings. Si Woo Kim … Taking at least two weeks off now, although that wasn’t the plan until the conclusion of the Genesis Open where he missed the cut. He fell to 51st in the Official World Golf Ranking, which is also the first spot on the outside looking into qualifying for the WGC-Mexico Championship. The top 50 through the Genesis earned berths. Sangmoon Bae … After placing T15 at Pebble Beach, settled for a T75 at Riviera. Currently 150th in the FedExCup standings despite missing seven of 10 cuts in his return to the PGA TOUR. Has 17 starts remaining on his medical extension. D.A. Points … Cited “neck issues” on Twitter. He’s scheduled to participate in next week’s Puerto Rico Open Charity Day. It’s an unofficial event benefiting the island in the wake of the devastation left behind by Hurricane Maria. That means that the 2017 PRO champ would defend his title when the tournament resumes its official spot on the schedule in 2019. John Peterson … He’ll stay put on five starts remaining on his medical extension. Just 104.335 FedExCup points shy of securing conditional status as a secondary objective. He’s 3-for-3 this season but without a top-45 finish. Vijay Singh … He finished T6 at PGA National just two years ago, so this decision will disappoint gamers angling at that. His T73 at the Genesis Open extended his streak of surviving at least one cut to 26 straight seasons. Power Rankings Recap – Genesis Open Power Ranking  Golfer  Result 1  Dustin Johnson  T16 2  Jordan Spieth  T9 3  Paul Casey  T49 4  Phil Mickelson  T6 5  Rory McIlroy  T20 6  Chez Reavie  T73 7  Marc Leishman  MC 8  Thomas Pieters  T68 9  Ollie Schniederjans  MC 10  Tommy Fleetwood  T37 11  Justin Thomas  T9 12  Bubba Watson  Win 13  Kevin Chappell  T20 14  Daniel Berger  MC 15  Alex Noren  T16 Wild Card  Adam Scott  T53 Sleepers – Genesis Open Golfer  Result K.J. Choi  MC Brian Gay  MC Adam Hadwin  T6 Brandon Harkins  T41 J.B. Holmes  T60 Birthdays among active golfers on the PGA TOUR February 20 … none February 21 … Steve Wheatcroft (40) February 22 … Vijay Singh (55); Whee Kim (26) February 23 … Steve Stricker (51) February 24 … Zach Johnson (42) February 25 … Hideki Matsuyama (26) February 26 … none

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