Fantasy Insider: RBC Heritage

I’ve never bet on golf. That’s not an admission or even a confession. It’s a fact. Even before I assumed this seat in 2010, it’s not something I pursued. Sure, I’ve participated in fantasy golf formats for over 25 years, but either real money wasn’t at stake or, when it was, it was a pittance compared to the bragging rights for claiming a season-long championship. Today, and since it was introduced a few years ago, I adhere to the PGA TOUR’s Integrity Program, so I have no plans to start betting on golf. RELATED: Power Rankings | Expert Picks I share because of my new connection to GolfBet. I’m advising in that space weekly but I’m not placing actual wagers. If I had real money at stake, it could be implied that my preview material could be skewed to benefit me in some way. Since my work and expertise influence wagering, which in turn can influence odds, it’s imperative that I detach myself from that process. The Integrity Program is an appropriate and convenient cover, but I already was following my own North Star. At the very least, this serves as an obligatory disclaimer. I hadn’t addressed it before, so I wanted to get it on the record. If the day ever arrives when I’m cleared to place a real bet, I’ll alert you immediately. If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve seen me share my picks in advance of every tournament since debuting for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Here’s how my “card” from last week’s Masters appeared: You’ll note that I’m using The Action Network’s application. It’s for mobile and tablet users only. A desktop version is not available. I’m learning how to use the value of units to express my confidence for each selection. What I’m still determining is my objective. First and foremost, I’m sharing those selections as an aid for you, if necessary, but I also have a responsibility not to engage in a willy-nilly fashion just because I can. I know that some wagerers will want to review my history in the app, so I’m taking that seriously. I have no plans on multiplying the value of any unit so much so as to distort my track record, but you could invest in my elevated confidence in advance, anyway, and that does benefit you. And that’s the most important component of my role. As I evolve in that space, please be aware that what I’m doing is free from the tug of making a buck on the side via the omission of angles from which I think I could profit. My promise always to be transparent preceded this new role, but it has introduced the requirement to reinforce that message. Gotta say that I’m having a blast with it, so there’s no shortage of enthusiasm. Connecting with a new audience has been rewarding and fun, learning from the other contributors at GolfBet has been invaluable, and my competitive streak has made room for a different kind of sweat. PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf My roster for the RBC Heritage (in alphabetical order): Daniel Berger (+2000) Patrick Cantlay (+1600) Corey Conners (+3000) Tyrrell Hatton (+2500) Matt Kuchar (+4000) Webb Simpson (+1400) You’ll find my starters in Expert Picks Others to consider for each category (in alphabetical order): Scoring: Abraham Ancer; Harris English; Matt Fitzpatrick; Doug Ghim; Brian Harman; Charley Hoffman; Dustin Johnson; J.T. Poston; Cameron Smith Driving: Abraham Ancer; Paul Casey; Harris English; Tommy Fleetwood; Sergio Garcia; Doug Ghim; Emiliano Grillo; Dustin Johnson POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD Kevin Kisner (+5000) … Sigh. He’s 53rd in the FedExCup but with only one top 10 – a P2 at The RSM Classic that accounts for 60 percent of his season total. As usual, he looked good at the Match Play (T18), but he’s scuffled in individual competition since the birth of his third child. He’s worth the risk at Harbour Town where he was a playoff victim in 2015 and has another pair of top-11 finishes, but he’s looked good elsewhere of late, too. Give him a twirl fractionally just to apply an emotional reaction, but temper your expectations. Odds sourced on Tuesday, April 13 at 5 a.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm. DRAWS Collin Morikawa (+1800) … Every once in a while, it’s good to pump the brakes to take stock of where we are with a guy. For me, his inconsistency deserves enough attention to omit him from this week’s Power Rankings. In his last six starts worldwide, he has only two top-40 finishes. Granted, he won at The Concession and he’s fresh off a T18 at the Masters, but his fantasy value is greater in the long-term than it is in a given week. That said, and to put it mildly, both values are above average. His T64 in his debut at Harbour Town last summer followed the disappointing playoff loss at Colonial the week before. The two courses often are comps for each other, so it’s reasonable to chalk up the latter result as part of the emotional learning curve. Statistically, he checks every box emphatically except for his putting. So, I’m approaching him this week as a litmus test for the notion that bad putters can hide on small greens, but I don’t know if I’ll ever attempt to talk you out of him on any track. Paul Casey (+2800) … Despite missing the cut in his last two trips (2016, 2018), his form throughout 2021 has been terrific. Plain and simple, he’s offered no reason for it not to continue no matter the test. Tommy Fleetwood (+3500) … Expectations remain high, but he’s of complementary value in weekly formats. Makes most cuts, so he’s insurance, but he’s had only one top 10 on the PGA TOUR in 13 months (T10, 2021 API). Finished T25 in his debut here last summer. Branden Grace (+6600) … The 2016 breakthrough champion is 5-for-5 at Harbour Town with a trio of top-11 finishes and a scoring average of 69.40 in 20 rounds. His victory in Puerto Rico a month and a half ago is one of four top 25s in his last eight starts worldwide. Michael Thompson (+12500) … The regular at Harbour Town is making his ninth appearance. He recorded top 10s in the last two editions and he’s been reliable for secondary-value purposes all season. J.T. Poston (+12500) … The Western Carolina product doesn’t scream horse for any course, but he has a T6 (2018) and a T8 (2020) in his only appearances at Harbour Town. His scoring average in those eight rounds is a tidy 67.75. As a result, he probably will be over-owned in DFS. Because of that, the smarter play would be to abstain. Mark Hubbard (+30000) … Last year’s first-round co-leader backpedaled into a T33, so he’s out for some revenge. Harbour Town plays into his propensity to find fairways and dial in his putter, not to mention that it lifts his relative value as a short hitter off the tee. He’s also cashed in nine of his last 13 starts, so toss him into DFS considerations. Sergio Garcia Brice Garnett Lucas Glover Emiliano Grillo Charley Hoffman Si Woo Kim Chris Kirk Shane Lowry Alex Noren C.T. Pan Brandt Snedeker Matt Wallace FADES Billy Horschel (+5000) … It seemed that fatigue played a factor in his victory at the Match Play, but he was hardly alone. As impressive as any title is, it’s still his only noisemaker of four starts upon arrival. With hot and (mostly) cold results at Harbour Town in eight consecutive trips, he’s a calculated pass. On an aside, how he’s built this season is a departure from his previous reputation as a streaky player, but most (all?) golfers would trade a string of close calls for victories and podium finishes scattered among off-weeks. Lee Westwood (+5000) … While each result can be explained in real time, his consecutive runner-up finishes in early March are appearing to reflect a surge more than a sustainment. He also hasn’t seen Harbour Town in 16 years. Sungjae Im (+3500) … This is relative. After sharing runner-up honors at the November Masters, he acknowledged how differently (read: more challenging) Augusta National presented in advance of last week’s traditional slot, so it’s worth dismissing his poor experience for our purposes this week. That said, he is 0-for-2 at Harbour Town, so save a start in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Danny Willett (+20000) … He’s missed two cuts upon arrival and he’s 0-for-3 at Harbour Town. Dylan Frittelli (+10000) … Failed to fulfill promise as a Sleeper for the Masters (see below), so there’s that. He finished T8 at Harbour Town last year, but he closed with a 62 to climb 39 places. Good or bad, it’s usually not effective to base decisions on one round no matter its timing. Chez Reavie (+20000) … Only three top-45 finishes in the last eight months. He’s also just 5-for-10 at Harbour Town and without a top 25. Byeong Hun An Sam Burns Charles Howell III Mackenzie Hughes Anirban Lahiri Adam Long Denny McCarthy Ryan Moore Pat Perez Andrew Putnam Kyle Stanley Robert Streb RETURNING TO COMPETITION Scott Piercy … Hasn’t played in a month. Intended to tee it up at The Honda Classic but a positive COVID-19 test result thwarted that plan. A T50 at Pebble Beach is his best finish in five starts in 2021, but Harbour Town could serve as an overdue springboard. He finished T16 here in 2018 and T3 in 2019, the last time it was contested in April, so consider him fractionally. Danny Lee … Walked off TPC San Antonio during his second round with a sore shoulder. It extended his drought without a top-45 finish to 10 consecutive starts. Not that he’s worth the reach, even as a penny stock in DFS, he’s 5-for-7 at Harbour Town but with only two top 50s and never a top 35. Kevin Tway … Hasn’t pegged it anywhere since the Waste Management Phoenix Open in early February. It was his sixth consecutive missed cut. Nothing has surfaced to explain the time away, but he can afford to be patient since he’s fully exempt through 2021-22. That said, it’s been 20 months since his last top 25, so he’s past the midpoint of that (T11, 2019 BMW Championship) and the expected conclusion of next season. NOTABLE WDs Bryson DeChambeau … The FedExCup points leader finished T46 at the 2021 Masters. Reaction to his position at No. 17 in last week’s Power Rankings tilted heavily toward an opinion that he should’ve been placed close to the top. Fact is, and as he stated following the tournament, there’s more art than science at Augusta National, so it’s going to take him time to solve the equation. He’d have been a nice piece at Harbour Town where he’s recorded a T3, a T4 and a T8 in five tries, but the break during what has been a heavy and stressful period of golf is warranted. Joel Dahmen … The irony is that when a guy breaks through for the first time, as he did at Corales three weeks ago, his schedule changes to include previously unscheduled starts in the invitationals, and the RBC Heritage is an invitational. However, he’s been gaining entry into them, anyway, by virtue of his FedExCup points and elevated Official World Golf Ranking. Steve Stricker … It would’ve marked his first appearance at Harbour Town since 1998. The 54-year-old is 123rd in the FedExCup standings on the strength of a T4 at TPC Scottsdale and a pair of top 20s, the more recent of which in his last event at PGA National (T13). While at best a spot-starter in weekly formats, that he’s hanging on with gusto is enticing in the deepest of full-season formats. However, the closer he gets to focusing solely on the Ryder Cup, the more competing for himself in individual competition, whether on the PGA TOUR or the PGA TOUR Champions, will settle into the back seat. POWER RANKINGS RECAP – 2021 Masters Power Ranking Golfer Result 1 Dustin Johnson MC 2 Justin Thomas T21 3 Jon Rahm T5 4 Jordan Spieth T3 5 Patrick Reed T8 6 Patrick Cantlay MC 7 Webb Simpson T12 8 Matt Fitzpatrick T34 9 Sungjae Im MC 10 Rory McIlroy MC 11 Xander Schauffele T3 12 Cameron Smith T10 13 Tony Finau T10 14 Brooks Koepka MC 15 Corey Conners T8 16 Paul Casey T26 17 Bryson DeChambeau T46 18 Collin Morikawa T18 19 Adam Scott 54th 20 Sergio Garcia MC Wild Card Daniel Berger MC SLEEPERS RECAP – 2021 Masters Golfer Result Dylan Frittelli MC Lanto Griffin MC Mackenzie Hughes T40 Sebastián Muñoz T40 Ian Poulter T26 BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE GOLFERS ON THE PGA TOUR April 13 … Davis Love III (57) April 14 … Sebastian Cappelen (31); Kramer Hickok (29); Matthew Wolff (22) April 15 … Rafael Campos (33); Martin Trainer (30) April 16 … Michael Thompson (36); Doug Ghim (25) April 17 … Nick Taylor (33) April 18 … none April 19 … Matt Jones (41) Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ years of age or older to wager. 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2nd Round 3 Balls – J. Campillo / R. Hoey / R. Gibson
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Rico Hoey+130
Jorge Campillo+140
Rhein Gibson+320
The Galleri Classic
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN
Steve Stricker+350
Steven Alker+650
Miguel Angel Jimenez+1100
Jerry Kelly+1200
Stephen Ames+1400
Ernie Els+1600
Alex Cejka+1800
Brian Gay+2000
KJ Choi+2500
Kevin Sutherland+2500
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1st Round 3-Balls – R. Pampling / D. Barron / S. Flesch
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN
Doug Barron+140
Rod Pampling+150
Steve Flesch+260
1st Round 3-Balls – R. Goosen / F. Couples / J. Leonard
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN
Retief Goosen+115
Justin Leonard+220
Fred Couples+230
1st Round 3-Balls – S. Stricker / D. Clarke / S. Alker
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN
Steve Stricker+105
Steven Alker+150
Darren Clarke+400
1st Round 3-Balls – D. Toms / M.A. Jimenez / J. Furyk
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN
Miguel Angel Jimenez-105
David Toms+180
Jim Furyk+350
1st Round 3-Balls – S. Ames / E. Els / T. Jaidee
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN
Stephen Ames+150
Ernie Els+160
Thongchai Jaidee+220
2nd Round Match-Up – L. List v T. Detry
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN
Luke List-115
Thomas Detry-105
2nd Round 3 Balls – G. Higgo / R. Werenski / B. Burgoon
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Garrick Higgo+130
Bronson Burgoon+200
Richy Werenski+210
2nd Round 3 Balls – B. Hossler / S. Jaeger / C. Young
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Stephan Jaeger+145
Beau Hossler+150
Carson Young+250
2nd Round Six-Shooter – Group A – S. Jaeger / A. Bhatia / B. Hossler / A. Novak / A. Rai / C. Davis
Type: 2nd Round Six-Shooter – Status: OPEN
Stephan Jaeger+350
Beau Hossler+400
Aaron Rai+425
Akshay Bhatia+425
Andrew Novak+425
Cameron Davis+500
2nd Round Match-Up – N. Dunlap vs G. Higgo
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN
Garrick Higgo-110
Nick Dunlap-110
2nd Round Match-Up – B. Hossler vs A. Rai
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN
Aaron Rai-110
Beau Hossler-110
1st Round 3-Balls – J. Kelly / V. Singh / J. Durant
Type: 1st Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN
Jerry Kelly+105
Vijay Singh+225
Joe Durant+240
2nd Round Match-Up – M. Hubbard v J. Dahmen
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN
Mark Hubbard-115
Joel Dahmen-105
2nd Round Match-Up – M. NeSmith v P. Coody
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN
Matt NeSmith-125
Pierceson Coody+105
2nd Round 3 Balls – T. Montgomery / H. Hall / R. Fox
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Taylor Montgomery+150
Ryan Fox+160
Harry Hall+225
2nd Round 3 Balls – A. Baddeley / J. Teater / D. Wu
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Dylan Wu+140
Aaron Baddeley+170
Josh Teater+230
2nd Round 3 Balls – C. Davis / C. Hadley / A. Rai
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Aaron Rai+130
Cam Davis+180
Chesson Hadley+225
2nd Round 3 Balls – J. Hahn / J. Lower / S. Stevens
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Sam Stevens+150
Justin Lower+160
James Hahn+225
2nd Round Match-Up – A. Svensson vs C. Davis
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN
Adam Svensson-120
Cam Davis+100
2nd Round 3 Balls – P. Malnati / S. Scheffler / W. Zalatoris
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler-175
Will Zalatoris+260
Peter Malnati+430
2nd Round 3 Balls – N. Hardy / T. Moore / C. Reavie
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Taylor Moore+110
Nick Hardy+210
Chez Reavie+240
2nd Round Match-Up – A. Bhatia vs P. Malnati
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN
Akshay Bhatia-130
Peter Malnati+110
2nd Round Match-Up – T. Moore vs J. Highsmith
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN
Taylor Moore-160
Joe Highsmith+135
2nd Round 3 Balls – R. Brehm / K. Kisner / S. Cink
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Stewart Cink+105
Ryan Brehm+220
Kevin Kisner+240
2nd Round 3 Balls – J. Knapp / A. Bhatia / A. Svensson
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Akshay Bhatia+160
Jake Knapp+160
Adam Svensson+200
2nd Round 3 Balls – N. Dunlap / L. List / K.H. Lee
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
K H Lee+150
Luke List+160
Nick Dunlap+230
2nd Round 3 Balls – M. Wallace / G. Woodland / B. Snedeker
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Matt Wallace+120
Gary Woodland+140
Brandt Snedeker+350
2nd Round Match-Up – K.H. Lee vs S.H. Kim
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN
K H Lee-130
S H Kim+110
2nd Round 3 Balls – M. Laird / A. Cook / M. NeSmith
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Matt NeSmith+150
Martin Laird+160
Austin Cook+220
2nd Round 3 Balls – K. Mitchell / D. Ghim / G. Sigg
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Keith Mitchell+140
Doug Ghim+170
Greyson Sigg+225
2nd Round Match-Up – M. Meissner vs G. Sigg
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN
Greyson Sigg-130
Mac Meissner+110
2nd Round Match-Up – A. Novak vs T. Pendrith
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN
Andrew Novak-125
Taylor Pendrith+105
2nd Round 3-Balls – L. Maguire / X. Lin / B. Tardy
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN
Xiyu Lin+130
Leona Maguire+160
Bailey Tardy+275
2nd Round 3 Balls – J. Dahmen / L. Griffin / K. Chappell
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Joel Dahmen+110
Lanto Griffin+210
Kevin Chappell+240
2nd Round 3 Balls – B. Wu / T. Detry / A. Novak
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Andrew Novak+150
Thomas Detry+150
Brandon Wu+240
2nd Round 3-Balls – M. Lee / B. Henderson / R. Yin
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN
Brooke Henderson+175
Minjee Lee+175
Ruoning Yin+175
2nd Round 3 Balls – M. Meissner / R. McCormick / C. Hammer
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Mac Meissner+130
Cole Hammer+200
Ryan McCormick+200
2nd Round 3 Balls – Parker Coody / Pierceson Coody / J. Bridgeman
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Parker Coody+140
Jacob Bridgeman+150
Pierceson Coody+260
2nd Round 3-Balls – C. Hull / L. Thompson / A. Lee
Type: 2nd Round 3-Balls – Status: OPEN
Alison Lee+145
Charley Hull+160
Lexi Thompson+240
2nd Round 3 Balls – D. Skinns / T. Whitney / S. Bennett
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
David Skinns+175
Sam Bennett+175
Tom Whitney+175
2nd Round 3 Balls – N. Xiong / M. Greyserman / P. Fishburn
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Max Greyserman+135
Norman Xiong+185
Patrick Fishburn+210
2nd Round Match-Up – A. Tosti v T. Whitney
Type: 2nd Round Match-Up – Status: OPEN
Alejandro Tosti-110
Tom Whitney-110
2nd Round 3 Balls – T. Olesen / J. Highsmith / D. van der Walt
Type: 2nd Round 3 Balls – Status: OPEN
Thorbjorn Olesen+120
Joe Highsmith+140
Dawie Van Der Walt+350
Major Specials 2024
Type: To Win A Major 2024 – Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+105
Jon Rahm+225
Rory McIlroy+225
Viktor Hovland+225
Brooks Koepka+350
Ludvig Aberg+350
Patrick Cantlay+400
Collin Morikawa+450
Justin Thomas+450
Wyndham Clark+450
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The Masters 2024
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+450
Rory McIlroy+1100
Jon Rahm+1200
Brooks Koepka+1800
Jordan Spieth+2000
Xander Schauffele+2000
Hideki Matsuyama+2500
Joaquin Niemann+2500
Justin Thomas+2500
Ludvig Aberg+2500
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PGA Championship 2024
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+700
Jon Rahm+1000
Rory McIlroy+1000
Viktor Hovland+1400
Brooks Koepka+1600
Bryson DeChambeau+2000
Patrick Cantlay+2000
Wyndham Clark+2000
Xander Schauffele+2000
Cameron Smith+2500
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US Open 2024
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+700
Rory McIlroy+800
Jon Rahm+900
Viktor Hovland+1000
Cameron Smith+1600
Brooks Koepka+1800
Cameron Young+2000
Collin Morikawa+2000
Ludvig Aberg+2000
Patrick Cantlay+2000
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The Open Championship 2024
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN
Scottie Scheffler+800
Jon Rahm+1000
Rory McIlroy+1000
Viktor Hovland+1100
Brooks Koepka+2000
Cameron Smith+2000
Cameron Young+2000
Collin Morikawa+2000
Jordan Spieth+2500
Ludvig Aberg+2500
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Solheim Cup 2024
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN
USA-140
Europe+135
Tie+1200
Ryder Cup 2025
Type: Winner – Status: OPEN
USA-135
Europe+135
Tie+1000