Confidence Factor: Fantasy advice for the Wyndham Championship

There are multiple levels of pressure to deal with on the PGA TOUR. Last week, Brooks Koepka had to face his heroes in a showdown on the back nine on Sunday at the PGA Championship before collecting his third major championship in his last six majors. This week some of the pros will be playing for their jobs as they try and retain PGA TOUR status in the final Regular Season event at the Wyndham Championship. For the 11th season running, Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina, will play host as the TOUR determines the order of its top 125 players. Those inside of the top 125 at the end of play this week will also begin the FedExCup Playoffs next week at Ridgewood Country Club in Paramus, New Jersey. Henrik Stenson (No. 9) became the highest-ranked player in the OWGR to win since Hal Sutton (No. 4) in 2000. Stenson set the tournament record as he posted 22-under-par 258. He’s back to defend his title this week but I’ll point out in the last 11 events at Sedgefield there have been 11 different winners. The field of 156 will be looking to rack up $1.080 million and 500 FedExCup points before the prize pools greatly expand next week in the Playoffs. TALES OF THE TAPE The one element that jumps off the page is the spectrum of winners this event has produced since returning to Sedgefield in 2008. Yes, that was 51-year-old Davis Love III picking up the check in 2015. He became the third-oldest winner on TOUR as he came back from four shots down after 54 holes to win by one. He never had problems keeping up off the tee with the younger generation but it was his putting stroke that proved to be the difference. With perfect summer weather, the cut checked in at 3-under-par, reinforcing the point that average rounds don’t hold up when jobs are on the line. This event isn’t for the grinder either as the top 30 were 10-under or lower and there were exactly three rounds from this group that were worse than par. The pendulum swung the opposite direction the following year as 21-year-old Si Woo Kim replaced the 51-year-old Love as the champ. Not only did he become the youngest winner of the event but he did it in regal fashion. He set the new course record (60) in Round 2 while tying the tournament record of 21-under-par 259 as he led alone after 36, 54 and 72 holes. The icing on the cake was a whopping five-shot victory final round that didn’t even cause him to break a sweat. Not bad for TOUR win No. 1! The top 32 players were 10-under or better and the cut was 3-under again. Rafa Cabrera Bello was the co-first round leader after posting 63 and is in the field again this week. Last year the veteran Swede was pushed to the finish line by Ollie Schniederjans. Stenson was up for the challenge as he made birdies on four of his last six holes to win by one. Schniederjans, the former Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket, refused to go quietly and was the only player bogey-free in the final round. Knowing that he needed to dunk his final shot on the last to have any chance of a playoff, he missed by just 21 inches. Matt Every opened the proceedings with 61 but Stenson’s 62 didn’t force him to play catch-up all week. He sat one off the lead at the halfway point behind Ryan Armour, who signed for 61 in Round 2, and Webb Simpson before securing the 54-hole lead by a shot. For the third year running the cut was 3-under so there’s no room for slow starts! 2008: Inaugural edition, 21-under is the winning score; history before at the Forest Oaks Club is irrelevant. 2009: Ryan Moore makes up a four-shot deficit to force a playoff and win. 2010: Monday Qualifier Arjun Atwal shoots 20-under to win by one. 2011: Webb Simpson named one of his daughters after the event. 2012: Monday finish for Sergio Garcia. 2013: Patrick Reed beat Jordan Spieth in a playoff after switching to Champion Bermuda greens. 2014: Camilo Villegas shot 63 in the final round to come from four shots off the lead to win. Go ahead and tell me what’s going to happen this week! The only thing I am positive about this week is that plenty of par-breakers will need to be on the winning scorecard! NOTE: Golfers inside the top 25-ish in each statistic on the 2017-18 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week. * – Finished inside the top 10 since 2013 or is a past champion. Birdie-or-Better Percentage Rank  Golfer  2  Joaquin Niemann 11 Chesson Hadley 14 Keith Mitchell 15 Ryan Palmer 16 Brandon Harkins 19 Grayson Murray 20 Ricky Barnes 22 *Martin Laird 23 Sam Saunders 26 Tom Lovelady 29 *Ollie Schniederjans Proximity Rank  Golfer  1  David Hearn  2  Joaquin Niemann  4  Steve Stricker  7  Chris Kirk  9  Conrad Shindler 10 Tom Hoge 12 *Jim Furyk 12 Cameron Percy 15 *Henrik Stenson 17 Brian Stuard 21 Blayne Barber 21 Chesson Hadley 25 *J.J. Henry 27 *Ryan Armour Rounds in the 60’s Rank  Golfer  4  Jason Kokrak  7  Chesson Hadley  8  Keith Mitchell 10 Brian Gay 14 Corey Conners 14 Chris Kirk 18 Tyler Duncan 18 *Webb Simpson 18 J.T. Poston 25 Patrick Rodgers 25 Brandon Harkins 30 *Rory Sabbatini 30 *John Huh 30 *Ryan Armour Par-4 Scoring Rank  Golfer  5  Joaquin Niemann  9  *Henrik Stenson  9  Hunter Mahan  9  *Ryan Moore 15 Chris Kirk 15 *Webb Simpson 21 J.T. Poston 21 *Johnson Wagner Sedgefield Country Club was originally designed by Donald Ross and then was redesigned by Kris Spence before resuming hosting duties in 2008. Stretching only to 7,127 yards the Par-70 has been under attack since Day 1. All three of the last winners were in the top 10 in fairways but birdies aren’t made from the tee box. With greens averaging almost 6,500 square feet, I’m more interested in the players who hit the most of them. The more chances at birdie will keep the pressure off as everyone knows they will need to go low this week. Running at 12 feet on the Stimpmeter, I’ll remind you this is the first time on Bermuda for these guys on TOUR since TPC Southwind, the week before the U.S. Open. What a way to end it! Just like the big gunfight seen in the movies! Everyone who is teetering knows they have to go low this week and watching guys who do or don’t handle the moment is fascinating. Newer gamers will tell me that guys will play well this week because they have to. I’ll point out most have had over 20 chances to secure their card by now. I don’t think the pressure or knowing that only low scores will be the way to go is going to “help” this week. As shown above, there’s not much degree of difficulty to this track as it simply sits right in front of the players. There’s not much of a learning curve necessary as shown by the winners above. The pressure this week is on the pros sitting firmly on the FedExCup bubble. The top 125 advance to the Playoffs and will keep full playing privileges for next season. In seven of the last eight years, No. 125 entering this week has secured his card for next year. The Bubble Other notables  QUICK FACTS: • Of the 10 winners at Sedgefield, six have been internationals. • In the last five years only 10 players have inserted themselves into the top 125. • Matt Jones has fallen out of the 125 THREE TIMES at this event. He begins the week No. 144 so maybe he can turn the tables! • There has never been a repeat champion at this event since Sam Snead in 1956. • Gamers please remember any player who won last year is exempt in 2018-19 regardless of their final position this year. It does NOT make them eligible for the Playoffs. • Green complexes were changed from Bentgrass to Champions Bermuda after the 2012 edition. Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings will give you more juice for the week so make sure you stop by. It’s also who I trust with the weather each week so pay attention!  NOTE: The groups below are comprehensive to assist in data mining. Inclusion doesn’t imply automatic endorsement in every fantasy game as all decisions are specific to your situation.  

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